Double Steel Weekly Report | Week 35, 2026 (August 24, 2026)

Publication date: August 24, 2026

Publication date: August 24, 2026
Market and news cutoff: August 23, 2026
Exchange-rate benchmark: USD/TWD spot selling rate: 31.92

This week, the steel market showed a divergent pattern marked by a sharp rise in coking coal, a second consecutive week of social inventory drawdowns, higher Asian billet prices, and continued weakness in Taiwan rebar. The coking coal benchmark rose 11.25% week on week to USD 249/T. Tangshan Q235 billet advanced to CNY 2,970/T, while the rebar benchmark gained 1.42%. In contrast, the HRC and international scrap benchmarks fell 2.87% and 1.01%, respectively.

China’s social inventories of five major steel products declined for a second consecutive week, falling to 11.8037 million tonnes on August 21. Inventories decreased by 105,400 tonnes, or 0.89%, from the previous week. Rebar, wire rod, and HRC inventories all declined, while medium plate and CRC inventories edged higher, indicating that the improvement in demand remained uneven across product categories.

Taiwan’s market continued to diverge from Asian cost trends. Tradable prices for Asian 3SP 150 mm billet rose above CFR USD 480/T, while resale prices for rebar in southern Taiwan fell to NTD 16,550–16,600/T. At a billet price of CFR USD 480/T, the estimated production cost of rolled rebar in Taiwan is approximately NTD 17,200/T—around NTD 650/T above the low end of the selling-price range—making imports clearly uneconomical.

Key Data This Week

Chapter 1: Detailed Data Summary

Cost Indicators and Exchange-Rate Monitoring

The most notable change on the cost side this week was the sharp rise in coking coal. The coking coal benchmark climbed to USD 249/T, up 11.25% week on week and 12.67% month on month. China’s most-traded coking coal futures contract closed at CNY 1,591.5/T on August 21, gaining 37% over the past three months and reaching a 22-month high. Mine-safety inspections and production outages in Shanxi have tightened supply and become the primary drivers of the price increase.

The US-dollar iron ore benchmark stood at USD 95.21/T, up only 0.04% week on week and essentially unchanged. Australian 62% fines were quoted at CFR USD 97.35/T on August 21. Falling Chinese port inventories, declining social inventories, and energy and freight costs provided support, but end-user demand remained weak. A narrow trading range is therefore still expected in the near term.

The HRC benchmark fell 2.87% week on week, even as physical import offers in Asia moved higher. Tradable prices for Chinese SS400/Q235 HRC were around FOB USD 485–490/T. Tradable HRC prices in Southeast Asia were approximately CFR USD 505–515/T, while Indonesian offers to Vietnam rose to CFR USD 510–530/T.

The USD/TWD spot selling rate declined to 31.92, down another 0.15 from 32.07 in W34. The modest appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar helped reduce the cost of US-dollar-denominated imports. USD/CNY fell 0.40% week on week; the stronger renminbi increased the pressure on Chinese steel exporters to raise their US-dollar offers.

Forward-Looking Macro Indicators and Interpretation

• Rebar–billet spread: CNY 31.6/T, improving from CNY 19.2/T in W34, but still insufficient to indicate that rolling margins have returned to a healthy range.

• Social inventories of five major steel products: 11.8037 million tonnes, down 105,400 tonnes, or 0.89%, week on week for a second consecutive weekly decline.

• Rebar social inventory: 5.0470 million tonnes, down 94,500 tonnes, or 1.84%, week on week.

• Wire rod social inventory: 648,900 tonnes, down 22,800 tonnes, or 3.39%, week on week.

• HRC social inventory: 3.6712 million tonnes, down 2,500 tonnes, or 0.07%, week on week.

• Medium plate social inventory: 1.2105 million tonnes, up 11,400 tonnes, or 0.94%, week on week.

• CRC social inventory: 1.2261 million tonnes, up 3,000 tonnes, or 0.24%, week on week.

• Tangshan billet: CNY 2,970/T, up CNY 30/T from CNY 2,940/T in W34.

• USD/CNY: Down 0.40% week on week, reflecting modest renminbi appreciation.

Total social inventories of the five major steel products have now declined for two consecutive weeks. Rebar and wire rod destocking accelerated, while HRC shifted from a slight increase to a marginal decline. However, inventories of medium plate and CRC continued to rise, and HRC inventories in China’s major markets remained above year-earlier levels. At least another one to two weeks of observation will be needed to determine whether peak-season demand can genuinely take over.

Chapter 2: In-Depth Analysis of Key Products

2.1 Billet

Tangshan Q235 billet was quoted at CNY 2,970/T, up CNY 30/T from W34. Renminbi appreciation and the sharp rise in coking coal costs pushed Chinese export prices higher. Offers for 3SP 150 mm billet were reported at FOB USD 455–460/T, equivalent to approximately CFR USD 480–485/T in Asia.

Tradable Asian billet prices have moved above CFR USD 480/T, leaving Taiwanese mills’ original bid target of CFR USD 460–465/T temporarily unworkable. At the same time, low-end resale prices for rebar in southern Taiwan fell to NTD 16,550–16,600/T, another NTD 50–100/T below the previous week.

Based on billet at CFR USD 480/T, the estimated cost of producing rolled rebar in Taiwan is approximately NTD 17,200/T, around NTD 650/T above the low-end selling price of NTD 16,550/T. Even with the stronger New Taiwan dollar reducing landed costs, the savings are insufficient to offset the negative finished-product margin.

2.2 Special Steel and Round Bar

Mysteel market updates indicated that prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Guangdong, and Changsha were generally stable to slightly weak, with average transaction activity. Fujian and Shenyang recorded modest declines at times. On August 21, special-steel prices across China were broadly stable, with ordinary transaction volumes, suggesting that higher costs had not yet translated into across-the-board price increases.

Taiwan’s polished bar exports reached 1,595 tonnes in July, up 7.2% month on month. The average export price rose to NTD 42,927/T, a high level for a single month this year. Cumulative exports in the first seven months totaled 11,168 tonnes, with an average price of NTD 41,317/T. Improved export prices provided support for bright and finished bar products, although overall volume remained limited.

For nickel-bearing products, LME nickel closed at USD 17,058/T on August 21, gaining USD 243/T, or 1.45%, week on week and ending three consecutive weeks of declines. LME inventories, however, rose to 268,488 tonnes. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, the global refined nickel market recorded a surplus of 42,700 tonnes in the first half of the year. High inventories and excess supply are expected to limit further gains in nickel prices.

2.3 Updates on Other Related Steel Products

HRC and Pickled Coil

Chinese private-sector mills quoted SS400/Q235 HRC at around FOB USD 490/T, with tradable levels at approximately FOB USD 485–490/T. Tradable prices in Southeast Asia were around CFR USD 505–515/T. Indonesia’s HRC export benchmark rose to FOB USD 510/T, while offers delivered to Vietnam were approximately CFR USD 510–530/T.

Taiwan’s distribution prices for imported HRC recovered from NTD 17,500–17,700/T to NTD 17,700–17,900/T. Domestic HRC still needs time to absorb relatively high inventories. POSCO concluded a pickled coil transaction at CFR USD 560/T, while Taiwan’s distribution prices for pickled coil rose from NTD 19,000–19,200/T to NTD 19,200–19,400/T. Products with lower inventories rebounded more quickly.

Indonesia’s Dexin Steel is expected to reduce output during maintenance in September because of water shortages. Formosa Ha Tinh Steel in Vietnam has announced a three-week HRC maintenance shutdown during October and November. Regional supply reductions can support offers, but end-user demand has yet to stabilize, limiting mills’ ability to raise prices.

Wire Rod

Shagang lowered its late-August list prices for industrial wire rod by CNY 100/T across the board. The ex-works price of 1022A fell to CNY 3,620/T, while low-carbon 1008 declined to CNY 3,630/T. Rebar and coiled rebar prices were also reduced by CNY 50/T. Despite higher raw-material prices, weak downstream demand continued to push mills toward price cuts to secure orders.

Market prices for China Steel Corporation’s EAF Grade A wire rod in Taiwan were around NTD 20,500/T. Taiwan exported 46,766 tonnes of bolts in July, up 4.15% month on month and the highest monthly volume of the year, but still down 11.04% year on year. Cumulative exports in the first seven months fell 14.3% from a year earlier, showing that downstream export demand had not fully recovered.

Scrap

The international scrap benchmark stood at USD 393.50/T, down 1.01% week on week. Japanese H2 scrap was offered to Vietnam at CFR USD 355–358/T, while Vietnamese buyers bid around CFR USD 350/T. US 80:20 bulk scrap was offered to Vietnam at CFR USD 370/T, with bids around CFR USD 365/T.

Taiwanese buyers indicated only CFR USD 335/T for Japanese scrap and approximately CFR USD 324/T for US containerized scrap, both clearly below broader Asian market levels. Tokyo Steel reduced scrap purchase prices at its plants by JPY 500–1,500/T effective August 22, providing a downward signal. However, demand from South Korea and Vietnam continued to compete with Taiwan for available supply.

Medium Plate

Chinese SS400 medium plate was offered at FOB USD 525–555/T, with tradable prices around FOB USD 515–518/T. Tradable prices for Q235 medium plate in Vietnam were approximately CFR USD 530–532/T. Market sentiment was more stable than before, although Vietnamese buyers still did not expect a significant improvement in September demand.

Chapter 3: Regional Market Intelligence

China | Social Inventories of Five Major Steel Products Decline for a Second Week

As of August 21, China’s social inventories of five major steel products had fallen to 11.8037 million tonnes, down 105,400 tonnes, or 0.89%, from the previous week. Inventories of rebar, wire rod, and HRC all declined, while medium plate and CRC recorded slight increases.

Impact assessment: The scope of destocking broadened compared with W34, providing short-term support for steel prices. Purchasing cycles for flat products should be extended moderately only if HRC inventories continue to decline.

China | Coking Coal Reaches a 22-Month High

China’s most-traded coking coal futures contract closed at CNY 1,591.5/T, having gained 37% over the past three months. The US-dollar coking coal benchmark rose to USD 249/T this week, up 11.25% week on week.

Impact assessment: Cost support for blast-furnace steel has strengthened significantly, but finished-steel demand has not increased at the same pace, leaving mill margins vulnerable to raw-material cost pressure.

Asian Billet | Tradable Prices Rise Above CFR USD 480/T

Chinese 3SP 150 mm billet was quoted at approximately FOB USD 455–460/T, equivalent to about CFR USD 480–485/T in Asia. Taiwanese buyers continued to target CFR USD 460–465/T.

Impact assessment: The bid-offer gap widened to USD 15–25/T, leaving little room for transactions in the near term. Taiwanese importers should wait for offers to decline or finished-product prices to improve.

Taiwan | Low-End Rebar Prices Fall to NTD 16,550/T

Visible resale prices for rebar in southern Taiwan were around NTD 16,600/T, while aggressive low-end offers fell to NTD 16,550/T, another NTD 50–100/T below the previous week.

Impact assessment: The cost of producing rebar from imported billet is approximately NTD 650/T above the selling price. Low-price competition will continue to restrain purchases of billet and imported scrap.

Asia and Taiwan | HRC and Pickled Coil Recover First

Tradable HRC prices in Southeast Asia rose to CFR USD 505–515/T. POSCO concluded a pickled coil transaction in Taiwan at CFR USD 560/T. Distribution prices for imported HRC in Taiwan recovered to NTD 17,700–17,900/T, while pickled coil rose to NTD 19,200–19,400/T.

Impact assessment: Low-inventory pickled coil responded more quickly than high-inventory HRC. HRC should still be replenished against confirmed orders rather than treating the rebound in offers as evidence of a broad-based demand recovery.

Southeast Asia | Indonesian and Vietnamese Mills Enter Maintenance and Reduce Output

Indonesia’s Dexin Steel is expected to reduce output during maintenance in September because of water shortages. Formosa Ha Tinh Steel in Vietnam plans a three-week HRC shutdown during October and November for major maintenance.

Impact assessment: Regional supply reductions will support fourth-quarter HRC offers. Buyers should confirm special specifications and delivery schedules early, but do not need to build large inventories all at once.

Taiwan Wire Rod | Raw-Material Costs Rise While Downstream Orders Remain Weak

Market prices for China Steel Corporation’s EAF Grade A wire rod were around NTD 20,500/T. The market expected CSC’s fourth-quarter bar and wire rod list prices to remain unchanged as the more likely outcome. Taiwan’s bolt exports fell 14.3% year on year in the first seven months.

Impact assessment: Raw-material costs and end-market orders are moving in opposite directions. Wire rod purchases should therefore be replenished in batches according to actual fastener orders.

Asian Scrap | South Korea and Vietnam Remain the Main Buyers

Japanese H2 scrap was offered to Vietnam at CFR USD 355–358/T, while US 80:20 bulk scrap was quoted at CFR USD 370/T. Taiwanese buyers indicated only CFR USD 335/T for Japanese scrap.

Impact assessment: Tokyo Steel’s price cuts provided a downward signal, but a clear gap remained between Taiwan and the broader Asian market. Buyers should avoid chasing imported scrap prices.

Taiwan | China Steel Corporation Profitable for a Fourth Consecutive Month

China Steel Corporation posted consolidated pretax profit of NTD 655 million in July, marking a fourth consecutive profitable month. Pretax profit for the first seven months reached NTD 2.994 billion, up 224% year on year. However, July profit declined 55.3% from June, mainly because of a higher share of low-priced export sales.

Chinese Manufacturing | Exports Support Steel Demand, but Domestic Demand Remains Weak

The export value of China’s steel-intensive machinery and electrical products rose 33.9% year on year in July and 26% in the first seven months. Vehicle exports reached 1.09 million units in July, up 57.5% year on year. However, domestic passenger-vehicle sales fell 22% year on year in the first half of August.

Global Nickel Market | Prices Rebound, but Supply Remains in Surplus

LME nickel rose to USD 17,058/T, up 1.45% week on week, while inventories increased to 268,488 tonnes. The global refined nickel market recorded a surplus of 42,700 tonnes in the first half of the year.

Chapter 4: Overall Assessment

Key Monitoring Indicators

1. Whether China’s social inventories of the five major steel products decline for a third consecutive week, and whether medium plate and CRC shift into destocking.

2. Whether coking coal at USD 249/T and Chinese coking coal futures at CNY 1,591.5/T continue to set new highs.

3. Whether Tangshan billet at CNY 2,970/T breaks above CNY 3,000/T or retreats to CNY 2,900/T.

4. Whether the gap narrows between Asian billet at CFR USD 480–485/T and Taiwanese bids at CFR USD 460–465/T.

5. Whether Taiwan’s low rebar prices of NTD 16,550–16,600/T spread to other regions.

6. Whether imported HRC prices in Taiwan continue to rise from NTD 17,700–17,900/T while inventories decline.

Conclusion

The positive signal in W35 was the second consecutive weekly decline in China’s social inventories of the five major steel products, with rebar, wire rod, and HRC all recording inventory drawdowns. The sharp rise in coking coal and the appreciation of the renminbi also strengthened cost support for Chinese steel. However, Taiwan rebar fell to NTD 16,550–16,600/T, creating a severe negative margin against tradable Asian billet prices above CFR USD 480/T. Higher raw-material costs have yet to receive support from Taiwan’s end-user demand.

Sources: TradingEconomics, E.SUN Bank, Mysteel, and domestic and international steel industry news websites.

This report is published by the Market Research Department of Double Steel Co., Ltd. Its contents are provided solely for market research and procurement assessment and do not constitute a final investment or direct purchasing decision.