Double Steel Weekly Report | 2026 Week 33 (2026/08/10)

Publication Date: August 10, 2026 Exchange Rate Benchmark: USD/TWD spot selling rate 32.27

Publication Date: August 10, 2026 Exchange Rate Benchmark: USD/TWD spot selling rate 32.27

This week, the steel market was characterized by diverging costs, rising inventories, and a structural downward adjustment in Taiwan's mill pricing. Iron ore and international scrap fell 3.62% and 4.64% week on week, respectively, while coking coal, HRC, and rebar edged higher. Tangshan Q235 billet recovered to CNY 2,940/T.

Social inventories of China's five major steel products increased for a third consecutive week, reaching 11.9773 million tonnes on August 7, up 81,900 tonnes week on week. Rebar and HRC inventories rose in tandem, and the profit rate of Chinese steel mills fell to 32.03%. Although short-term prices have stabilized somewhat, demand has not yet shown a broad-based turnaround.

China Steel Corporation's September list prices are nominally flat across all products, but the first-tier HRC grade was cut by NTD 500/T, bringing the weighted average to roughly NTD 18,900/T — flat on the surface, lower in structure. At this stage, carbon steel still calls for low inventories, billet buyers should keep waiting for their target prices, and 45# round bar should be replenished only as needed.

Key Data This Week

Chapter 1: Detailed Data Summary

Cost-Side Indicators and Exchange Rate Monitoring

Cost-side indicators diverged this week. Iron ore and international scrap fell clearly week on week, while coking coal, HRC, and rebar posted small gains. The short-term rebound in finished-product prices was not accompanied by any improvement in inventories, so this looks more like low-level fluctuation than a demand-driven trend reversal.

Iron ore remained low across benchmarks: the international benchmark stood at 94.45 USD/T, 62% Australian fines were at 96.10 USD/T on August 7, and on August 4 the price touched 95 USD/T — a thirteen-month low. Chinese port iron ore inventories exceed 175 million tonnes, up 1.74% week on week, which will cap any rebound in ore prices.

The USD/TWD spot selling rate is 32.27. Based on Asian billet at CFR 475–480 USD/T plus 3% port charges, the pre-tax cost works out to roughly 15.79–15.95 NTD/KG; Taiwanese buyers' bid level of CFR 460 USD/T equates to about 15.29 NTD/KG, leaving a gap of roughly 0.50–0.66 NTD/KG.

Core Cost-Side Indicators

Leading Macro Indicators and Interpretation

• Rebar–billet spread: approx. 11.2 CNY/T, still narrow; rolling margins remain under pressure.

• Five major products social inventory: 11.9773 million tonnes, up 81,900 tonnes week on week (approx. +0.69% based on the before/after values) — the third consecutive week of accumulation.

• Rebar social inventory: 5.1953 million tonnes, up 54,200 tonnes, or 1.05%, week on week.

• HRC social inventory: 3.6732 million tonnes, up 35,100 tonnes, or 0.96%, week on week.

• Port iron ore inventory: above 175 million tonnes, up 1.74% week on week.

• Steel mill profit rate: down to 32.03%.

• USD/CNY: down 0.30% on the week; the yuan appreciated slightly.

The key questions for the next two to four weeks are whether total social inventories can turn lower, whether Tangshan billet can hold above CNY 3,000/T, and whether mill profit rates recover.

Chapter 2: In-Depth Analysis of Key Products

2.1 Steel Billet

Tangshan Q235 billet was quoted at CNY 2,940/T, up CNY 20/T from Week 32. However, continued inventory accumulation in China and thin mill margins limit the room for a rebound; at this stage, buyers should not chase imported material higher simply because domestic Chinese prices have ticked up.

Asian billet offers held broadly at CFR 475–480 USD/T, with Philippine buyers' bids at CFR 470–475 USD/T. Taiwanese rebar transactions are around NTD 16,800/T, large distributors are offering about NTD 16,600/T, buyers' acceptance level for imported billet is roughly CFR 460 USD/T, and most mills have suspended import purchases of raw material.

At an exchange rate of 32.27 with 3% port charges:

2.2 Special Steel and Round Bar

The special steel market remains generally weak. Tianjin, Shandong, and Fujian each posted small declines, Guangdong and Changsha held steady with only average trading, and high temperatures suppressed end demand in Shenyang. The national market was broadly stable through August 7, with no across-the-board pickup in transactions.

45# special-steel round bar was quoted at CNY 3,450/T, flat on the day and CNY 80/T below the last available Week 31 reference of CNY 3,530/T. Because Week 32 lacked an actual traded price, this is a comparison between the two available data points, not a single-week decline.

Nickel-bearing products remain volatile. LME nickel closed at 17,004 USD/T on August 7, up 242 USD/T on the day but still down 1.4% for August; inventories stand at 264,444 tonnes. Market talk of increased Indonesian mining quotas has not been officially confirmed, so alloy steel and stainless steel should continue to be bought on short, rolling orders.

2.3 Related Steel Products Briefing

Hot-Rolled Coil

Indonesian material traded into Vietnam at CFR 504–505 USD/T, with October shipment offered at CFR 510 USD/T; India offered CFR 510 USD/T, and Chinese SS400/Q235 is workable at around FOB 478–495 USD/T. Taiwanese imported HRC spot is around NTD 17,800–17,900/T, with domestic material at about NTD 18,000/T.

Wire Rod

The Chinese SAE1008 6.5mm benchmark stands at FOB 496 USD/T, down 2 USD/T on the week, with mainstream workable prices at FOB 495–500 USD/T; Indonesia offered FOB 475 USD/T, down 5 USD/T on the week.

Scrap

Japan's Kanto tender equates to roughly FOB 315 USD/T, down about 21.6 USD/T month on month. Taiwanese 50:50 Japanese scrap is estimated at around CFR 350–355 USD/T delivered, but buyers are bidding only CFR 330–335 USD/T — the gap has yet to close.

Coking Coal and Coke

Asian PLV hard coking coal is around Australian FOB 214.3 USD/T and Chinese CFR 232.4 USD/T. The third round of Chinese coke price cuts landed on August 7, with wet-quenched coke down CNY 50/T and dry-quenched coke down CNY 55/T.

Chapter 3: Regional Market Intelligence

China | Five Major Products Inventories Up for a Third Straight Week

Social inventories of the five major steel products stood at 11.9773 million tonnes on August 7, up 81,900 tonnes, or roughly 0.69%, week on week; rebar and HRC rose 1.05% and 0.96%, respectively. The pace of accumulation slowed from the prior week, but the direction has not reversed — carbon steel inventories should stay low.

China | High Port Ore Stocks; Mill Profit Rate Down to 32.03%

Chinese port iron ore inventories exceed 175 million tonnes, up 1.74% week on week, and the mill profit rate fell to 32.03%; daily hot metal output is about 2.3803 million tonnes and rose from the prior week. With supply still high and margins thin, mills will be increasingly price-sensitive when restocking raw materials.

China | July Steel Exports Top 10 Million Tonnes for a Third Month

China exported 10.121 million tonnes of steel in July, below June's 10.320 million tonnes; cumulative January–July exports were 64.995 million tonnes, down 4.4% year on year. Exports remain a key channel for destocking, and Southeast Asia will continue to face price competition from Chinese material.

Taiwan | CSC September Nominally Flat, HRC Structurally Lower

China Steel Corporation announced flat September prices across all products, but the first-tier HRC grade was cut by NTD 500 to NTD 20,200/T while the project price held at NTD 17,600/T, putting the weighted average at roughly NTD 18,900/T. An officially flat announcement does not mean every customer's cost is unchanged — buyers should compare on their actual grade tiers and discounts.

Asia | HRC Transactions Settle at CFR 504–505

Indonesian HRC traded into Vietnam at CFR 504–505 USD/T, with October shipment offered at CFR 510 USD/T; India also offered CFR 510 USD/T. The Asian HRC benchmark continues to converge toward the 500-dollar mark; small-volume negotiation against confirmed orders is appropriate.

Asian Billet | Offers Steady; Taiwanese Bids Still 15+ Dollars Lower

Asian billet is offered at CFR 475–480 USD/T, with Philippine bids at CFR 470–475 USD/T and Taiwanese buyers at around CFR 460 USD/T. Taiwanese finished-product prices cannot support mainstream delivered offers, so continuing to wait remains the better position.

Asian Scrap | Kanto Tender Falls; Taiwan Bid-Ask Spread Widens

Japan's Kanto tender equates to roughly FOB 315 USD/T, down about 21.6 USD/T month on month; Taiwanese 50:50 Japanese scrap is assessed at CFR 350–355 USD/T against bids of only CFR 330–335 USD/T. Electric-furnace feedstock should not be locked into long-term contracts prematurely.

Taiwan | July Exports Grow; Steel Products Up 8.5% Year on Year

Taiwan's July exports reached USD 75.3 billion, up 0.6% month on month and 32.9% year on year; basic metals and articles thereof rose 24.8% year on year, within which iron, steel, and their products grew 8.5%. External demand provides partial support, but growth in a single month's total exports does not directly imply stronger domestic steel prices.

Southeast Asia Trade | Malaysia Investigates Taiwanese Coated Steel

Malaysia has launched an anti-dumping investigation into coated and galvanized steel products from Taiwan, China, and Vietnam, with a preliminary determination expected within 120 days and comments from interested parties due by August 17. Exporters should immediately verify the product scope, origin documentation, and response deadlines.

EU Trade | Final Anti-Dumping Duties Land on Cold-Rolled Steel

The EU has imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on the cold-rolled steel products concerned: roughly 20.7%–27% for Taiwanese companies, 16% for Vietnam, 28% for Japan, 9.5% for India, and about 5.6%–9.7% for Turkey, with no retroactive collection. Exporters need to recalculate margins on European orders and assess order-diversion risk.

Chapter 4: Overall Assessment and Purchasing Strategy

Key Indicators to Monitor

1. Whether Taiwanese import billet from mainstream sources can fall to CFR 460–465 USD/T.

2. Whether Tangshan billet at CNY 2,940/T can climb back above CNY 3,000/T.

3. Whether China's five-major-products social inventory ends its three-week accumulation streak after reaching 11.9773 million tonnes.

4. Whether the 32.03% mill profit rate recovers, and whether port iron ore inventories drop below 175 million tonnes.

5. Whether CFR 504–505 USD/T becomes the mainstream Asian HRC trading range.

6. Whether LME nickel holds above 17,000 USD/T and inventories stay below 264,444 tonnes.

7. The August 17 comment deadline in Malaysia's anti-dumping case and the subsequent preliminary determination.

Conclusion

Price signals this week are steadier than in Week 32, but physical demand has not yet confirmed a turnaround. Billet recovered to CNY 2,940/T and rebar rose 0.74% on the week, yet social inventories of the five major products increased for a third consecutive week and the mill profit rate fell to 32.03%. This combination points to a market still consolidating at low levels rather than starting a new upcycle.

This report is published by the Market Research Department of Double Steel Corporation. Data sources: TradingEconomics, E.SUN Bank, Mysteel, SteelWorld, Steel industry news. This report is provided for reference only and does not constitute a final basis for investment or direct purchasing decisions.