Steel Industry Weekly Report (2026/06/09–06/15)

Executive Summary

This week, the global steel market exhibited a bifurcated pattern characterized by "weakness in the East and strength in the West." Sluggish domestic demand in China put downward pressure on rebar and steel billets, narrowing the rebar-billet spread to an extremely low level of 51.2 RMB/MT, which indicates that rolling margins continue to suffer compression. The marginal recovery in USD-denominated HRC quotes was primarily sustained by the North American market, rather than signaling a comprehensive turnaround in global demand.

On the raw materials front, coking coal fell 2.0% weekly (244 USD/MT), while iron ore slipped 0.4% (101.62 USD/MT). The appreciation of the RMB against the USD offset part of the cost support, notably elevating the uncertainty within the procurement environment. Concurrently, both the World Bank and Fitch Ratings revised downward their global growth forecasts, as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to perturb the energy markets.

I. Key Indicators at a Glance

Iron Ore: 101.62 USD/MT, weekly decrease of 0.4% (2026-06-15)
Coking Coal: 244.00 USD/T, weekly decrease of 2.0% (2026-06-15)
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC): 1,202 USD/MT, weekly increase of 0.5% (2026-06-15)
Tangshan Steel Billet Weekly Average: 3,040 RMB/MT (2026-06-15)
Rebar–Billet Spread: 51.2 RMB/MT, margin compression alert (2026-06-15)
Export Premium (FOB – Domestic Price): 735.6 USD/T (2026-06-15)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI): 2,729 points (2026-06-12)
USD/TWD Spot Selling Rate: 31.59 TWD (2026-06-15)
USD/CNY Weekly Fluctuation: -0.3% (2026-06-15)

II. Steel Billet Market

Tangshan steel billet climbed 20 RMB/MT within a single day to reach 3,040 RMB/MT, prompting a modest uptick in rebar and hot-rolled coil futures. However, this rebound predominantly reflected short-term sentiment linkages in the futures market rather than fundamental drivers. Iron ore softened during the same period, with major spot transactions consolidating within the 100–101 USD range, failing to provide distinct cost support for steel billets.

On the supply side, following the resumption of Pomina in Vietnam, its annual target is set at over 660,000 MT of billets. The gradual return of Southeast Asian supply is projected to exert medium-to-long-term structural pressure on regional pricing across Asia.

III. Regional Market Dynamics

Taiwan: The decline in HRC prices widened, escalating the pressure for subsequent downward price corrections in galvanized steel. The market has formally entered a period of third-quarter consolidation. Importers are advised to scale back short-term, high-priced stockpiling and focus primarily on securing long-term contracts tied to rigid demand.
China: Rebar and hot-rolled coil exhibited signs of a counter-rally, yet the persistent compression of the rebar-billet spread and squeezed steel mill profitability render the sustainability of this upward trend uncertain. Confronted with Vietnam’s aggressive price-cutting strategies to capture market share and Baosteel’s flat pricing approach, China Steel Corporation (CSC) faces intensifying negotiation pressures. Flat or lower pricing structures constitute the consensus expectation for the week.
International: With EU steel tariffs escalating to 50%, Asian exporters are confronting severe headwinds. The outcome of the South Korea-EU negotiations remains the pivotal variable for subsequent market trends. The marginal growth in Japanese automotive production (+3.1%) offered only constrained support for HRC demand.

IV. China Steel Bar Market

The Chinese special steel market sustained its weak momentum this week. Prices in major production hubs, including Shenyang and Changsha, experienced minor declines or remained flat, while trading activity in coastal markets such as Guangdong, Fujian, and Tianjin remained sluggish. Downstream demand from the machinery, mold-making, and automotive sectors recovered slowly, decelerating inventory destocking and leaving steel mills with insufficient leverage to push for price hikes.

V. Costs and Forex

Although coking coal posted a monthly gain of 3.0%, its weekly decline of 2.0% suggests that the cost floor remains fluid. The BDI held firm at a high level of 2,729 points, with rising ocean freight rates partially absorbing the declines in iron ore. The appreciation of the RMB eroded the export competitiveness of Chinese steel, yielding a neutral-to-negative currency effect overall.

VI. Regional Market Intelligence

[International] World Bank Lowers 2026 Global Economic Growth Forecasts

The World Bank and Fitch Ratings have both revised downward their global economic growth forecasts. Oil shocks triggered by the US-Iran conflict emerge as a primary risk, while the Middle East crisis is reshaping global energy investment priorities, potentially weighing down infrastructure demand.

Impact Assessment: Weakening demand expectations combined with escalating geopolitical risks will continue to suppress the rebound momentum of international steel prices. Export orders for special steel round bars may face headwinds from investment delays in construction machinery and energy equipment.

[China] Steel Prices Halt Decline and Counter-Rally! Rebar and HRC Surge, Building Materials Market Signals Warmth

Chinese rebar and HRC prices halted their decline and initiated a counter-rally this week. Coking coal prepares for its eighth consecutive price hike, while iron ore and scrap steel hold steady to support the market floor, introducing initial signs of recovery in the building materials sector.

Impact Assessment: HRC rose 0.5% weekly and rebar ticked up 0.2%, pushing the special steel index to a recent high of 3,999, with a steady supply side supporting downstream demand. Importers may leverage this stabilization phase in Chinese pricing to recalibrate inventory strategies.

[Taiwan] HRC Declines Widen, Galvanized Under Rising Pressure to Correct Downward; Steel Market Enters Q3 Consolidation

The price drop for HRC in Taiwan widened, leaving galvanized steel under intensified pressure for subsequent downward price corrections as the market formally enters its third-quarter consolidation phase. Although Tung Ho's H-beams secured an 11th consecutive price hike, the broader market exhibits a stark bifurcation.

Impact Assessment: The overlap of sluggish domestic demand in Taiwan and the broader "weak East, strong West" paradigm in Asia requires attention. Special steel importers should monitor the export premium, which remains elevated at 736 USD/MT, alerting to risks of eroded competitiveness in the second half of the year.

[International] Regional Bifurcation in Global Steel Market Intensifies; Demand-Supply Mismatch Becomes New Normal

The global long products market exhibits fragmentation. Interlocking trade barriers and geopolitical risks have rendered regional supply-demand mismatches the new normal. The decline of Asian HRC widened, while the US market hit successive highs, sustaining a highly polarized landscape.

Impact Assessment: Supply chain restructuring pressures are intensifying due to factors like the EU steel tariff escalation to 50% and adjustments to Indonesia's quota mechanisms. Taiwanese importers are advised to evaluate diversified procurement sources to mitigate dependence on a single market.

[International] Global Scrap Steel Market Enters High Volatility Period

International scrap steel prices slipped 0.2% weekly. The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) noted that geopolitics and ocean freight rates remain pivotal volatility drivers. The BDI held at 2,729 points, reflecting sustained freight cost support.

Impact Assessment: Stable scrap costs benefit cost control for EAF steel and special steel mills. However, with the BDI remaining elevated amidst geopolitical risks, importers must closely monitor supply chain disruption hazards for potential impacts on lead times and overall costs.

Data compiled as of June 15, 2026. Data Sources: TradingEconomics, Mysteel, SteelWorld, Steelnet.

Double Steel Co., Ltd. Research Team