Double Steel Weekly Report | 2026 Week 34 (2026/08/17)

Publication Date: August 17, 2026

Publication Date: August 17, 2026
Market Data & News Cutoff: August 16, 2026
Exchange Rate Benchmark: USD/TWD spot selling rate 32.07

This week, the steel market was characterized by rebounding raw materials, a turn lower in Chinese social inventories, and Taiwan's low-price competition still suppressing imports. Coking coal, international scrap, and the HRC benchmark rose 4.41%, 4.61%, and 1.67% week on week, respectively, while the USD iron ore benchmark edged up 0.76%; Tangshan Q235 billet held at 2,940 CNY/T.

Social inventories of China's five major steel products ended three consecutive weeks of builds, falling to 11.9091 million tonnes on August 14, down 68,200 tonnes week on week — roughly a 0.57% decline based on the before-and-after readings. However, HRC and heavy plate inventories still rose 0.01% and 1.25%, respectively, indicating that destocking is concentrated in construction steel and cold-rolled products and cannot yet be read as a broad-based strengthening across all steel items.

In Taiwan, Chung Hung Steel rolled over its September prices for HRC, CRC, and galvanized products, but circulating HRC prices remain in the low range of 17,700–18,500 NTD/T, with transactions concentrated at the low end; rebar in southern Taiwan briefly fell to 16,600 NTD/T. Although raw material prices have rebounded, Taiwan's finished-product prices and demand are still insufficient to support across-the-board price chasing.

Key Data This Week

Chapter 1: Detailed Data Summary

Cost-Side Indicators and Exchange Rate Monitoring

Raw material prices generally rebounded this week. Coking coal and international scrap both rose more than 4% week on week, the HRC benchmark gained 1.67%, and the USD iron ore benchmark rose 0.76%. However, the CNY iron ore benchmark fell 0.84% on the week, showing that the rebound was uneven across trading markets.

62% Australian fines were quoted at CFR 97.30 USD/T on August 14, down 0.20 USD/T from the previous week; another IODEX benchmark was assessed at 95.35 USD/T on August 13. Staged restocking by Chinese mills and a potential decline in arrivals provide support, but weak steel demand and still-high port inventories limit iron ore's upside.

Cost support from coking coal has strengthened markedly. Asian PLV hard coking coal rose to Australian FOB 224.90 USD/T, with the China CFR price up to 244 USD/T; Chinese coking coal futures jumped 3.38% in a single day on August 14. Tightening domestic coal supply in China, combined with recovering Indian demand, made coking coal the standout gainer among raw materials this week.

The USD/TWD spot selling rate fell from 32.27 in W33 to 32.07, a slight appreciation of the Taiwan dollar that marginally helps import costs. However, the improvement in the exchange rate is still not enough to close the gap between Taiwan's low finished-product prices and mainstream Asian offers.

Macro Leading Indicators and Interpretation

• Rebar–billet spread: 19.2 CNY/T, slightly improved from 11.2 CNY/T in W33, but still in a narrow range.

• Five major steel products social inventory: 11.9091 million tonnes, down 68,200 tonnes week on week — roughly a 0.57% decline based on the before-and-after readings.

• Rebar social inventory: 5.1415 million tonnes, down 53,800 tonnes, or 1.03%.

• Wire rod social inventory: 671,700 tonnes, down 8,000 tonnes, or 1.17%.

• HRC social inventory: 3.6737 million tonnes, up 500 tonnes, or 0.01%.

• Heavy plate social inventory: 1.1991 million tonnes, up 14,900 tonnes, or 1.25%.

• CRC social inventory: 1.2231 million tonnes, down 21,800 tonnes, or 1.75%.

• USD/CNY: down 0.10% on the week; a slightly stronger yuan works against continued price cutting by Chinese exporters.

The inventory structure matters more than the total. Rebar, wire rod, and CRC have turned to destocking, but HRC and heavy plate are still building, meaning pressure on the construction-steel side has temporarily eased while flat-product demand has not broadly improved. Over the next 2–4 weeks, watch whether the five major products can post a second consecutive weekly decline and whether HRC inventories turn lower in tandem.

Chapter 2: In-Depth Analysis of Key Products

2.1 Billet

Tangshan Q235 billet was quoted at 2,940 CNY/T, unchanged from W33. Against the rebar benchmark of 3,018 CNY/T, the rebar–billet spread is 19.2 CNY/T — improved from the prior week, but rolling margins remain thin.

Regular offers for Chinese 3SP 150mm billet stand at around FOB 450–455 USD/T, with regular Asian CFR prices at about 475–480 USD/T. Some steel traders have cut short-sale offers to CFR 470 USD/T, while overseas buyers have pushed bids down to CFR 460–465 USD/T, though no deals have been heard concluded. The Philippines booked Chinese 3SP 130mm billet at CFR 483 USD/T on August 12, which translates to a reasonable 150mm price of about CFR 480 USD/T.

Due to domestic oversupply, Indian export offers for September-delivery billet have dropped to FOB 435–445 USD/T, down about 10 USD/T on the week. Low-priced Indian material adds bargaining leverage for Asian buyers, but actual landed prices still require comparison including freight, specifications, and delivery terms.

Low-end rebar prices in southern Taiwan fell to 16,600 NTD/T, with the mill limiting order intake to 10,000 tonnes to control risk. Such low finished-product prices keep Taiwan's acceptance level for imported billet at around CFR 460–465 USD/T.

Taiwan's actual billet imports in July totaled 153,800 tonnes, down 30% month on month, at an average import price of 509 USD/T — up about 14 USD/T from June. Converted at this week's exchange rate with 3% port charges, 509 USD/T equates to about 16.81 NTD/KG, clearly above buyers' current target cost.

2.2 Special Steel and Round Bar

Market bulletins show special/quality steel prices in Tianjin, Shandong, and Guangdong slipping modestly one after another, while Fujian prices held steady with decent trading. On August 14, national special steel prices were broadly stable with acceptable turnover, indicating a shift from broad weakness to regional divergence — but not yet a uniform upturn.

The weekly gains in coking coal, scrap, and the HRC benchmark raise near-term cost support, but end-market transactions for 45# round bar should still take priority over raw material direction. When making inquiries, require suppliers to provide written quotations from the same mill, with the same specifications, heat treatment, delivery schedule, and payment terms, before comparing against the W33 reference points.

For nickel-bearing items, LME nickel closed at 16,815 USD/T on August 14, up 39 USD/T on the day, but still down 189 USD/T, or 1.1%, for the week; it has fallen a cumulative 2.5% since the start of August. LME inventories stand at 264,732 tonnes, down 1,440 tonnes month to date. Indonesian nickel ore quotas are being prioritized for smelters with lower raw material inventories, providing short-term support, but Shanghai nickel inventories remain above 100,000 tonnes and demand has not broadly strengthened.

2.3 Related Steel Products Briefing

Hot-Rolled Coil

Chinese private mills are offering SS400/Q235 HRC at FOB 485–490 USD/T, with state-owned mills at about FOB 500 USD/T; buyer intentions are around FOB 480–490 USD/T. In the Vietnamese market, Indonesian HRC is offered at CFR 505–510 USD/T, while Indian standard-spec material is tradable at about CFR 507–508 USD/T.

In Taiwan, circulating self-pickup prices for imported HRC are about 17,700–17,800 NTD/T, with domestic HRC at about 18,000–18,500 NTD/T, and transactions concentrated at the low end. Indonesian HRC is offered to Taiwan at CFR 515 USD/T, but buyers value it at only CFR 505–508 USD/T.

Wire Rod

The Chinese SAE1008 6.5mm wire rod benchmark stands at FOB 493 USD/T, down 3 USD/T on the week; mainstream offers are around FOB 498–505 USD/T, with tradable prices down to FOB 490–495 USD/T. Taiwan imported 157,600 tonnes of small-diameter wire rod in the first half, up 41.5% year on year, but the average import price fell to 17,161 NTD/T. Over the same period, exports of self-tapping screws and wood screws fell 9.17% and 17.06% year on year, respectively — indicating the import growth stems mainly from low prices rather than stronger end demand.

Scrap

Japanese H2 is mainstream-offered to Vietnam at about CFR 355 USD/T, with Vietnamese buyers countering at CFR 345–350 USD/T; Taiwanese buyer intentions for 50:50 Japanese scrap are only CFR 330–335 USD/T, so Japanese scrap is essentially not being offered to Taiwan. US 80:20 bulk-cargo scrap is offered to Vietnam at CFR 370 USD/T, with tradable prices at about CFR 360–365 USD/T.

Taiwan imported 121,900 tonnes of remelting scrap in July, down 11% month on month, at an average import price of 353 USD/T — up 14 USD/T from June. With import volumes shrinking and Taiwan rebar prices low, EAF mills' capacity to chase imported scrap remains limited.

Heavy Plate and H-Beam

Chinese SS400 heavy plate is offered at FOB 525–555 USD/T, with tradable prices at about FOB 520–525 USD/T, up 3–5 USD/T on the week; Vietnamese buyers are bidding about CFR 530 USD/T for Q235 heavy plate, with rainy-season demand still weak.

In Taiwan, circulating prices for imported H-beams are about 23,500–23,900 NTD/T, versus domestic material at about 24,600–25,300 NTD/T. The approaching end of the rainy season and reduced Korean supply should help the market ahead, but suppliers are still cutting prices to chase volume for now.

Chapter 3: Regional Market Intelligence

China | Five Major Products' Social Inventories End Three Straight Weeks of Builds

As of August 14, social inventories of China's five major steel products fell to 11.9091 million tonnes, down 68,200 tonnes week on week. Rebar, wire rod, and CRC inventories declined, while HRC and heavy plate still edged higher.

Impact Assessment: Pressure on the construction-steel side has temporarily eased, but flat products have not yet broadly destocked. Procurement strategy can shift from across-the-board defense to product-by-product handling, but should not move straight to broad restocking.

China | Tightening Coking Coal Supply Strengthens Cost Support

Asian PLV hard coking coal rose to Australian FOB 224.90 USD/T, with the China CFR price at 244 USD/T; Chinese coking coal futures gained 3.38% in a single day.

Impact Assessment: Rising coking coal will limit the room for blast-furnace steel prices to fall, but if end demand does not improve in tandem, mill margins may still be squeezed.

Asian Billet | Indian Export Prices Down 10 USD on the Week

Indian billet is offered at FOB 435–445 USD/T, down about 10 USD/T from the prior week's average; regular Chinese 3SP 150mm material remains at about CFR 475–480 USD/T into Asia.

Impact Assessment: Low-priced Indian supply increases buyers' bargaining leverage.

Taiwan | Low-End Rebar Falls to 16,600 NTD

Rebar in southern Taiwan briefly fell to 16,600 NTD/T, with the mill capping intake at 10,000 tonnes to control risk. The low price mainly serves to keep production lines running and maintain cash flow, not a clear strengthening of demand.

Taiwan | Chung Hung Rolls Over September Domestic Prices

Chung Hung Steel rolled over September prices for HRC, CRC, and galvanized products, with the HRC base price at about 21,000 NTD/T; October export prices will be quoted individually by product and region.

Taiwan | July HRC Exports Rise While Imports Fall

Taiwan imported 36,500 tonnes of HRC in July, 70.2% of June's volume; exports reached 176,900 tonnes, 120.2% of June's level. The average import price was 579 USD/T for thin-gauge and 600 USD/T for thick-gauge material.

Impact Assessment: Falling import volumes help digest Taiwan's inventories, but whether the export increase can be sustained still depends on EU quotas and regional trade measures.

Taiwan | July Billet Imports Shrink as Costs Rise

July billet imports totaled 153,800 tonnes, down 30% month on month, with the average price rising to 509 USD/T; slab imports were 137,900 tonnes, down 1% month on month, with the average price up to 490 USD/T.

Asian Scrap | Korea and Vietnam Absorb Japanese Scrap, Taiwan Stays Out of the Market

Japanese H2 is offered to Vietnam at CFR 355 USD/T, and Korea has recently shown increased interest in buying Japanese scrap; Taiwanese intentions for 50:50 Japanese scrap are only CFR 330–335 USD/T.

Impact Assessment: If Korean and Vietnamese demand stays firm, Japanese scrap may not fall quickly to Taiwan's target price. Taiwanese EAF mills should continue to evaluate domestic scrap and billet substitution together.

Taiwan Trade | Anti-Dumping Case Opened on Vietnamese Cold-Rolled Stainless Steel

On August 14, the Ministry of Finance initiated an anti-dumping investigation into certain cold-rolled stainless steel flat products from Vietnam, with the petition citing a 2025 dumping margin of 31.36%; the Ministry of Economic Affairs must complete its preliminary industry-injury investigation within 40 days of notification.

Impact Assessment: Importers should immediately verify covered specifications, origins, in-transit orders, and response deadlines. Domestic stainless steel gains short-term policy support, but the final duty rate is not yet determined.

Indonesia Trade | Wuhan Steel HRC Faces 5-Year Anti-Dumping Measures

Indonesia's anti-dumping committee has recommended a 4.87% ad valorem duty or a specific duty of 28.06 USD/T on HRC from China's Wuhan Iron and Steel, for a period of five years.

Impact Assessment: Restricted Chinese supply may divert to other Asian markets, intensifying regional competition; Taiwanese importers should also step up scrutiny of origin and transshipment risk.

Chapter 4: Overall Assessment and Procurement Strategy

Key Monitoring Indicators

1. Whether China's five major steel products' social inventories can fall for a second consecutive week, and whether HRC and heavy plate turn to destocking in tandem.

2. Whether Tangshan billet at 2,940 CNY/T can break above 3,000 CNY/T or falls below 2,900 CNY/T.

3. Whether the rallies in coking coal at 225 USD/T and PLV at FOB 224.90 USD/T continue.

4. Whether billet from general origins can be concluded to Taiwan at CFR 460–465 USD/T.

5. Whether Taiwan's 16,600 NTD/T low-end rebar price spreads to other regions and mills.

6. Changes in the spread between Taiwan's imported HRC at 17,700–17,800 NTD/T and domestic HRC at 18,000–18,500 NTD/T.

7. Whether the tradable price for Chinese SAE1008 wire rod falls below FOB 490 USD/T.

8. Whether LME nickel can reclaim 17,000 USD/T and whether inventories keep falling below 264,732 tonnes.

9. The preliminary industry-injury determination in the Vietnamese cold-rolled stainless steel anti-dumping case and importers' response progress.

Conclusion

W34 delivered two signals more positive than W33: China's five major steel products' social inventories ended three consecutive weeks of builds, and the coking coal, scrap, and HRC cost benchmarks rebounded together. However, HRC and heavy plate inventories have yet to decline, Taiwan rebar has fallen to 16,600 NTD/T, and circulating HRC prices remain concentrated at the low end — showing that cost support has not yet translated into a broad demand recovery.

Data Sources: TradingEconomics, E.SUN Bank, Mysteel, SteelWorld, and public steel industry news.

This report is published by the market research team of Double Steel Corporation. Its content is for market research and procurement evaluation reference only and does not constitute a final basis for investment or direct procurement decisions.