Double Steel Market Weekly Report | 2026-W30 (2026/07/20)

Release Date: July 20, 2026
Exchange Rate Base: USD/TWD Spot Selling Rate 32.48 (E.SUN Bank, 2026-07-20)

The steel market this week presented a bottom-probing pattern characterized by "a slight rebound in finished products, diverging raw materials, and persistently weak demand." Chinese rebar and HRC benchmark weekly figures recovered, while international scrap steel also halted its drop and bounced back. However, coking coal remained weak and iron ore logged limited gains, indicating inconsistent cost support.

China's crude steel output declined year-on-year in the first half, with mill production cuts providing bottom support. Nonetheless, operating rates at small-to-medium steel mills remained high in July, and social inventories cleared at a mere moderate pace, which has yet to form a full-scale reversal driven by end-user demand. The Taiwanese market, constrained by a weaker Taiwan Dollar, elevated imported raw material costs, and conservative downstream order intakes, saw both steel billets and imported scrap lack clear import economics. Regarding special steel round bars, the Mysteel Special Steel Index held flat. Actual spot quotes for 45# round steel were unavailable, making it inadvisable to substitute indices for spot prices to judge long-term directional contracts.

Although bottom-building signals increased compared to last week, supply contractions remained inconsistent, and a noticeable gap persisted between Asian billet tradable prices and Taiwanese buyer intentions.

Key Market Indicators This Week:

Iron Ore: 98.88 USD/T, weekly up 0.16% (TradingEconomics, 2026-07-20)
Coking Coal: 232.00 USD/T, weekly down 2.32% (TradingEconomics, 2026-07-20)
Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Benchmark: 1,188.00 USD/T, weekly up 1.19% (TradingEconomics, 2026-07-20)
Scrap Steel (International): 380.00 USD/T, weekly up 1.06% (TradingEconomics, 2026-07-20)
Rebar / Commercial Steel: 3,103.00 CNY/T, weekly up 1.11% (TradingEconomics, 2026-07-20)
Tangshan Steel Billet Q235: 2,990 CNY/T (2.99 CNY/KG), daily flat (Mysteel, 2026-07-20)
Mysteel Special Steel Index: 3,930.23 points; Commercial Steel Index: 3,286.59 points (Mysteel, 2026-07-17)
USD/TWD Spot Selling: 32.48 / Buying: 32.38 (E.SUN Bank, 2026-07-20)
USD/CNY: 6.77298, weekly down 0.20% (TradingEconomics, 2026-07-20)
BDI (Baltic Dry Index): 2,752 points, daily down 3.10% (Mysteel, 2026-07-17)

Chapter 1: Detailed Data Summary

Cost-Side Indicators & Foreign Exchange Monitoring

Impact of Cost-Side Volatility on Taiwanese Import Steel Quotes:

Finished product prices rebounded more strongly than primary raw materials this week: rebar rose 1.11% weekly, the HRC benchmark gained 1.19%, and international scrap climbed 1.06%; iron ore merely edged up 0.16%, whereas coking coal dropped 2.32% (TradingEconomics, 2026-07-20). Divergence between raw materials and finished steel suggests that this rally reflects mill production cuts, technical bottom repairs, and market sentiment, rather than a broad recovery in underlying demand.

Import pressure in Taiwan stemmed primarily from exchange rates. The USD/TWD spot selling rate rose to 32.48 (E.SUN Bank, 2026-07-20). Calculating Asian billets at CFR 480–485 USD/T with a 32.48 exchange rate and 3% port handling fee yields an untaxed cost of 16.06–16.23 NTD/KG, excluding processing, financing, and inland transport costs. With domestic rebar spot prices floating around 16,700 NTD/T, imported billets lacked a clear cost advantage.

Leading Macro Indicators & Interpretation:

The rebar-to-billet price spread squashed to just 53.2 CNY/T, leaving re-rolling margins tight and maintaining production cut pressures on mills. For social inventories, the top five steel products decreased by 1.07% weekly, and rebar dipped 1.16%, showing an improving destocking direction at a moderate pace. On the other hand, the blast furnace operating rate across 100 small-to-medium steel enterprises reached 78.1% during the first three weeks of July—up 1.7 percentage points from the June average—illustrating inconsistent supply curtailments. Price support will become clearer over the next 2 to 4 weeks only if social inventories continue to clear and Tangshan billets break above 3,050 CNY/T.

Chapter 2: Deep-Dive Analysis on Key Items

2.1 Steel Billets

Tangshan Q235 billets held steady at 2,990 CNY/T this week. Mainstream Asian billet offers stood at CFR 485–490 USD/T, with tradable levels at CFR 480–485 USD/T; Chinese 3SP 150mm billets were quoted at FOB 465–470 USD/T, short-seller trader offers at FOB 458–460 USD/T, and Philippine buying intentions at CFR 475–480 USD/T. Market trading remained subdued as buyers doubted the sustainability of recent price gains.

Taiwanese market absorption capacity remained noticeably lower. SteelWorld revealed that Taiwanese buyer intentions stayed below CFR 450 USD/T, while Russian billet quotes were paused. Calculating at USD/TWD 32.48 with a 3% port handling fee puts the untaxed cost of CFR 480–485 USD/T at 16.06–16.23 NTD/KG, leaving a spread insufficient to cover re-rolling, financing, and transport expenses.

For Taiwanese import buyers, the current market presents a contradictory window of "overseas mills holding prices firm while domestic finished products lack buying power." If official quotes decline below CFR 460 USD/T, landed costs should be recalculated; levels below CFR 450 USD/T approach the buying intentions disclosed in the Taiwanese market this week.

2.2 Special Steel & Round Bars

Regarding alloy steel wire rods, June imports totaled 15,518 tons (down 42.1% monthly), with the average import price rising by 4,598 NTD/T monthly to 24,241 NTD/T; first-half imports reached 115,718 tons (down 14.7% YoY), averaging 20,586 NTD/T (down 596 NTD/T YoY) (SteelWorld, 2026-07-17). Annual demand stayed weak, but the single-month price jump in June indicates that product specifications, chemical compositions, and origin mixes caused monthly average fluctuations, requiring procurement decisions to be matched against formal quotes for identical specifications.

On the raw material front, international scrap stood at 380 USD/T, up 1.06% weekly but down 1.30% monthly. LME nickel closed at 16,961 USD/T on July 17 (up 220 USD or 1.3% weekly), though the July average of 16,405 USD/T remained below June's 17,593 USD/T. Nickel-bearing materials maintained short-term cost support, yet fundamental demand has not clearly strengthened.

2.3 Associated Steel Fast-Facts

Asian HRC conventional prices hovered at CFR 520–530 USD/T; secondary Indonesian HRC traded at CFR 516 USD/T, and POSCO finalized sales to Taiwan at CFR 550 USD/T for 2,000–3,000 tons. Chinese major mills raised SS400 HRC export offers from FOB 495–500 USD/T to FOB 502–505 USD/T, though weak demand continued to cap further gains.

For wire rods, Indonesian K-grade material to Taiwan was quoted at FOB 485 USD/T (equivalent to CFR 510 USD/T, down 5 USD/T weekly); Taiwanese blast furnace K-grade spot prices floated around 20,000 NTD/T, and CSC EAF A-grade held near 20,500 NTD/T. Downstream fastener demand showed no meaningful expansion, with low-priced imported wire rods keeping local prices under pressure.

In stainless steel, total inventory across 89 mainstream warehouses in China fell 3.09% weekly to 1.0886 million tons, with 300-series stocks dropping 3.93% weekly. Wuxi private 304 base quotes reached 14,500 CNY/T (up ~150 CNY/T weekly). Inventory drawdowns and the nickel price bounce provided short-term support, though mid-term trends require monitoring mill delivery arrivals and downstream order books.

Chapter 3: Key Regional Market Intelligence

Taiwan | Rebar Production Cuts Accelerate; Destocking Required Before Price Hikes Asian billets at CFR 480–485 USD/T lack import economics for Taiwan, and imported scrap quotes exceed local mill buying targets. SteelWorld estimates an approximate loss of 700 NTD/T for rebar rolled from imported billets and a loss of 1,500–1,800 NTD/T for rebar melted from imported scrap.

China | Crude Steel Output Drops in 1H; Small-to-Medium Mills Rebound in July China's crude steel output totaled 499.95 million tons in the first half (down 3.0% YoY). However, the blast furnace operating rate across 100 small-to-medium steel enterprises reached 78.1% in the first three weeks of July, up 1.7 percentage points from the June average.

China | Top Five Steel Product Social Inventories Fall 1.07% Weekly Social inventories of the top five steel products fell to 11.674 million tons. Rebar, wire rod, HRC, and CRC declined by 1.16%, 2.22%, 0.78%, and 3.12% weekly, respectively, while medium/heavy plate gained 1.50%.

Asia | HRC Halts Decline; Transactions Restricted by Weak Demand Asian HRC conventional quotes stood at CFR 520–530 USD/T. Secondary Indonesian HRC traded at CFR 516 USD/T, and POSCO concluded sales to Taiwan at CFR 550 USD/T for 2,000–3,000 tons.

Taiwan | Low-Priced Indonesian K-Grade Wire Rods Pressurize Market Indonesian K-grade material to Taiwan dropped 5 USD/T weekly to CFR 510 USD/T. Taiwanese blast furnace K-grade held around 20,000 NTD/T, as downstream fastener demand lacked visible growth momentum.

Taiwan | Alloy Steel Wire Rod Volume Contracts & Price Slips in 1H Alloy steel wire rod imports reached 115,718 tons in 1H (down 14.7% YoY) at an average price of 20,586 NTD/T (down 596 NTD/T YoY), though single-month June average prices bounced to 24,241 NTD/T.

Stainless Steel | Inventory Drawdown Improves; Nickel Prices Driven by Expectations LME nickel closed at 16,961 USD/T on July 17 (up 1.3% weekly). Mainstream 89-warehouse stainless steel stocks dropped 3.09% weekly to 1.0886 million tons, with 300-series stocks falling 3.93%.

Europe | HRC Returns to 700 Euros; Buying Interest Remains Sluggish North and South European HRC tradable prices hovered around 700 EUR/T, with German delivered prices near 730–750 EUR/T. Import activity stayed constrained by quotas, CBAM, and anti-dumping risks.

Japan | Q3 Steel Demand Estimated Down 3.1% YoY Japan's Q3 steel demand is projected at 18.05 million tons (down 3.1% YoY). Manufacturing demand is estimated at 5.61 million tons (up 0.3% YoY), and exports at 6.05 million tons (down 6.4% YoY).

Global Scrap | Elevated Freight Rates Cap Price Downside Turkey deep-sea scrap mainstream quotes stood at CFR 370–380 USD/T, with tradable levels around CFR 365–375 USD/T. Bulk freight rates from US East Coast to Turkey held at 36 USD/T, and Rotterdam to Turkey at 33.25 USD/T.

Critical Watchlist:

Asian Billet Offers: Whether CFR 480–485 USD/T shifts downward below 460 USD/T
Chinese Social Inventories: Whether the top five steel products can maintain destocking above 1% weekly for two consecutive weeks
Tangshan Billet Threshold: Whether prices break above 3,050 CNY/T or slide back below 2,950 CNY/T
USD/TWD Rate: Whether spot selling stays consistently above 32.50
LME Nickel & Stainless Stocks: Whether nickel can hold above 17,150 USD/T and 300-series stocks continue to clear

This report is published by the Market Research Department of Double Steel Co., Ltd. Data Sources: TradingEconomics, E.SUN Bank, Mysteel, SteelWorld, International Steel News, Steelnet. The content of this report is for reference only and does not constitute final grounds for investment or procurement decisions.