Double Steel Weekly Report | 2026 Week 32 (2026/08/03)

Publication Date: August 3, 2026

Exchange Rate Benchmark: USD/TWD spot selling rate 32.33

This week, the steel market was characterized by continued cost weakness, rising inventories, and divergent mill pricing in Taiwan. Iron ore, coking coal, HRC, rebar, and the international scrap benchmark all declined week on week. Rebar posted the largest decrease at 3.94%, while Tangshan Q235 billet fell to CNY 2,920/T.

Social inventories of China’s five major steel products increased for a second consecutive week, reaching 11.8954 million tonnes on July 31, up 1.03% week on week. Rebar and HRC inventories rose 1.60% and 1.42%, respectively. The profit rate of 247 Chinese steel mills fell to 34.63%, while the blast-furnace operating rate declined to 82.09%. These figures indicate increasing pressure on mills to reduce production, but demand has not yet created the conditions for a broad-based price recovery.

Taiwan’s carbon-steel market remained weak, while stainless steel mills raised list prices in response to raw-material and supply risks. Different products therefore require different purchasing strategies.

Key Data This Week:

• Iron ore: USD 98.00/T, down 0.43% week on week

• Coking coal: USD 215.00/T, down 2.71% week on week

• HRC benchmark: USD 1,190.00/T, down 0.83% week on week

• Scrap (international benchmark): USD 398.50/T, down 0.99% week on week

• Rebar/steel benchmark: CNY 2,953.00/T, down 3.94% week on week

• Tangshan Q235 billet: CNY 2,920/T (CNY 2.92/KG), down 0.34% on the day

• 45# special-steel round bar: Data unavailable

• USD/TWD spot selling rate: 32.33; spot buying rate: 32.23

• USD/CNY: 6.75254, up 0.30% week on week

• Social inventories of China’s five major steel products: 11.8954 million tonnes, up 1.03% week on week

Chapter 1: Detailed Data Review

Cost Indicators and Exchange Rate Monitoring

Expected impact of cost fluctuations on Taiwan’s imported steel prices:

Raw-material and finished-steel benchmarks weakened together this week. Iron ore fell 0.43% week on week, coking coal declined 2.71%, HRC dropped 0.83%, rebar decreased 3.94%, and the international scrap benchmark fell 0.99%. The much larger decline in rebar relative to iron ore and coking coal indicates that demand pressure on finished products outweighed the benefit of lower raw-material costs.

Australian 62% Fe fines were quoted at USD 96.55/T on July 31, down 2.37% week on week, after recovering slightly from a one-year low of USD 96.30/T on the previous day. Falling Chinese steel prices, rising steel inventories, and higher port iron ore stocks weighed on mill purchasing. The risk of a strike by BHP port workers provided short-term supply-side support to iron ore prices.

Taiwanese imports remained constrained by the exchange rate and the spread against domestic finished-steel prices. The USD/TWD spot selling rate was 32.33. Based on a Philippine transaction for Chinese 5SP billet at CFR USD 478–480/T and an estimated 3% in port and handling charges, the pre-tax cost was approximately NTD 15.92–15.98/KG. At the Taiwanese buying target of CFR USD 460/T, the comparable cost was approximately NTD 15.32/KG. The difference between Southeast Asian transaction levels and Taiwan’s acceptable level remained approximately NTD 0.60–0.67/KG.

Leading Macro Indicators and Interpretation:

The rebar-to-billet spread fell to negative CNY 25.4/T, indicating that the converted billet cost was higher than the rebar benchmark and that rolling margins were under severe pressure. At the same time, the profit rate of 247 steel mills was only 34.63%, the blast-furnace operating rate fell to 82.09%, and daily hot-metal output declined to 2.377 million tonnes.

Inventory signals also deteriorated. Social inventories of China’s five major steel products rose 1.03% week on week, while rebar and HRC inventories increased 1.60% and 1.42%, respectively. Production cuts have not yet outpaced the contraction in demand. The key questions for the next two to four weeks are whether rebar and HRC inventories stop rising and whether Tangshan billet falls below CNY 2,900/T.

Chapter 2: In-Depth Analysis of Key Products

2.1 Billet

Tangshan Q235 billet was quoted at CNY 2,920/T this week, down CNY 40/T from CNY 2,960/T in Week 31. Falling mill profitability, blast-furnace operating rates, and hot-metal output indicate increasing production-cut pressure. However, with finished-steel inventories still rising, production cuts can only limit the downside and are not sufficient to trigger a price reversal.

A major reroller in the Philippines purchased approximately 40,000 tonnes of Chinese 5SP billet at CFR USD 478–480/T, around USD 2/T below the previous week. Chinese 5SP offers were approximately CFR USD 480–485/T, or around FOB USD 460/T, with freight from China to Southeast Asia at approximately USD 20–23/T. Another 50,000-tonne cargo of Indonesian billet was sold to Vietnam at CFR USD 476/T.

Taiwan’s rebar spot price was approximately NTD 17,000/T. Tradable imported billet was approximately CFR USD 475/T, but Taiwanese buyers were interested only at CFR USD 460/T. Transactions in Southeast Asia do not mean that imports are economical for Taiwan. Conventional-origin billet should be reconsidered near CFR USD 460/T, or after domestic finished-steel prices, the exchange rate, and processing margins materially improve.

2.2 Special Steel and Round Bar

An actual Week 32 quotation for 45# special-steel round bar was unavailable, so neither an index nor news headlines were used as a substitute for the spot price. Confirmed market signals showed weak prices and quiet transactions in Changsha, stable prices but poor transactions in Guangdong, and small price declines with weak transactions in Fujian. The nationwide market also posted modest declines without a meaningful increase in transaction volume.

Upstream pressure continued to move lower for carbon-steel round bar, but nickel-bearing products followed a different direction. LME nickel closed at USD 17,249/T on July 31, down 0.75% week on week but up 5.90% for the full month of July. LME inventories fell to 266,172 tonnes, a decrease of 8,268 tonnes during July. Indonesia’s new export inspection measures also delayed shipments of certain nickel intermediates and nickel pig iron.

For 45# round bar, buyers should obtain written offers from at least two suppliers using identical specifications, delivery dates, and payment terms. Until actual prices are available, purchases should be limited to one to two weeks of confirmed requirements. Nickel-bearing round bar and alloy steel should be purchased through short rolling orders with shorter quotation-validity periods, while large one-time purchases at elevated prices should be avoided because demand remains weak.

2.3 Other Related Steel Products

For HRC, a 30,000-tonne cargo of Indonesian 3.0mm material was sold to Vietnam at CFR USD 510/T, while traders offered short-position material at approximately CFR USD 505–507/T. In Taiwan, regular domestic HRC prices were approximately NTD 18,800–19,000/T, while low-end prices were around NTD 18,300–18,500/T. Some downstream buyers reduced inventories in anticipation of possible further mill-price reductions, leaving the market volatile.

For wire rod, the Chinese SAE1008 6.5mm benchmark was FOB USD 498/T and unchanged week on week. Offers ranged from FOB USD 500–508/T, with tradable levels at FOB USD 495–500/T. An Indonesian mill offered at FOB USD 480/T, down USD 5/T week on week. In Taiwan, Yieh Hsing kept its August carbon-steel wire rod price unchanged for a second consecutive month.

In stainless steel, Yieh Hsing raised its August 300-series stainless wire rod price by NTD 1,500/T and its 316-series surcharge by NTD 2,500/T, while keeping 200- and 400-series prices unchanged. Tang Eng raised both 304 hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil prices by NTD 1,500/T and its 316L surcharge by NTD 2,500/T. Taiwan’s spot price for 304 cold-rolled coil was approximately NTD 67,500–68,000/T after declining NTD 3,000/T in July, showing a gap between mill efforts to support prices and weak spot demand.

For coated products, Yieh Phui reduced its August domestic galvanized and color-coated steel prices by NTD 800/T, while raising 304 stainless color-coated steel by NTD 1,500/T. September export prices for galvanized and color-coated products were both reduced by USD 20/T.

Chapter 3: Regional Market Intelligence

China | Inventories Rise for a Second Week; Rebar and HRC Lead the Increase

On July 31, social inventories of China’s five major steel products reached 11.8954 million tonnes, up 121,100 tonnes or 1.03% week on week. Rebar inventories rose 1.60% to 5.1411 million tonnes, while HRC inventories increased 1.42% to 3.6381 million tonnes. Inventory accumulation broadened from construction steel to HRC, making longer carbon-steel inventory cycles inadvisable.
China | Mill Profit Rate Falls to 34.63%; Blast-Furnace Operating Rate Declines

The profit rate of 247 steel mills fell to 34.63%, daily hot-metal output declined to 2.377 million tonnes, and the blast-furnace operating rate dropped to 82.09%. Twenty-three blast furnaces in Tangshan were under maintenance, affecting approximately 74,700 tonnes of daily hot-metal output. Production cuts may limit the downside, but they do not constitute a broad recovery signal until inventory accumulation stops.
Southeast Asia | Philippine Billet Transaction Falls to CFR USD 478–480/T

A Philippine buyer purchased approximately 40,000 tonnes of Chinese 5SP billet at CFR USD 478–480/T, around USD 2/T below the previous week. Transactions emerged in Southeast Asia, but buyers continued to control the market. Taiwanese buyers should not chase prices based on a single regional transaction.
Taiwan | Imported Billet Tradable Level Remains USD 15/T Above Buying Target

Taiwan’s rebar spot price was approximately NTD 17,000/T. Tradable imported billet was around CFR USD 475/T, while buyers were interested only at CFR USD 460/T. Imports therefore remained uneconomical. Reassessment should wait until prices approach CFR USD 460/T or domestic rebar prices improve.
Asia and Taiwan | HRC Transactions Move Lower; Taiwanese Spot Prices Remain Volatile

A 30,000-tonne cargo of Indonesian 3.0mm HRC was sold to Vietnam at CFR USD 510/T, while traders offered short-position material at CFR USD 505–507/T. Taiwan’s regular domestic HRC prices were approximately NTD 18,800–19,000/T, with low-end prices around NTD 18,300–18,500/T. HRC remained a buyer’s market, and confirmed requirements could be tested in small volumes around CFR USD 505–510/T.
Taiwan | Coated Steel Prices Reduced as Carbon-Steel Demand Remains Weak

Yieh Phui reduced its August domestic galvanized and color-coated steel prices by NTD 800/T and cut September export prices for both products by USD 20/T. The reductions reflected pressure on transactions and exports. Purchases should remain order-driven without an early inventory build.
Taiwan | Stainless Plate and Wire Rod Prices Rise, but Spot Demand Remains Weak

Yieh Hsing raised 300-series stainless wire rod and Tang Eng raised 304 hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil by NTD 1,500/T. The 316-series surcharges were increased by NTD 2,500/T. Taiwan’s 304 cold-rolled coil spot price was approximately NTD 67,500–68,000/T after falling NTD 3,000/T in July. Mill support will limit the downside, but the distribution market still needs to reduce inventories.
Asia | Wire Rod Export Prices Stable; Low-Priced Indonesian Supply Intensifies Competition

The Chinese SAE1008 6.5mm wire rod benchmark was FOB USD 498/T, with tradable levels at FOB USD 495–500/T. An Indonesian mill offered at FOB USD 480/T, down USD 5/T week on week. Low-priced Southeast Asian material is likely to cap Taiwanese carbon-steel wire rod prices, making direct landed-cost comparisons with domestic mill prices essential.
Asian Scrap | Japanese and US Scrap Remain in a Downtrend

Japanese H2 scrap was offered to Vietnam at CFR USD 360–365/T, while buyers bid CFR USD 350–355/T. A reasonable price for Japanese 50:50 scrap delivered to Taiwan was approximately CFR USD 355–360/T, but Taiwanese buying interest was only CFR USD 340–345/T. The growing incentive to substitute billet for imported scrap leaves room for further scrap-price reductions, so buyers should avoid locking in large long-term electric-furnace raw-material contracts too early.
Global Trade | Indian Steel Exports Rise 27% in the First Half

India exported 4.63 million tonnes of steel in the first half of 2026, up 27% year on year. Exports to the European Union fell 19.8% to 1.01 million tonnes, while exports to Vietnam rose from 10,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes. Trade barriers in Europe and the United States are redirecting Indian supply toward Southeast Asia. Importers can broaden origin comparisons but should review quality, origin, and trade-remedy risks.

Key Monitoring Indicators:

• Taiwan’s imported billet target: whether conventional-origin offers fall to CFR USD 460/T

• Tangshan billet: whether CNY 2,920/T falls below CNY 2,900/T or recovers to CNY 3,000/T

• Social inventories of China’s five major steel products: whether inventories rise for a third consecutive week after the latest 1.03% increase

• Mill profitability and blast-furnace operating rate: whether 34.63% and 82.09% continue to decline

• Asian HRC: whether CFR USD 505–510/T becomes the new transaction range

• LME nickel and inventories: whether nickel returns to USD 17,500/T and inventories remain below 266,172 tonnes

• 45# round bar: whether at least two comparable quotations are obtained below the Week 31 reference of CNY 3,530/T

• Taiwan stainless spot market: whether the NTD 67,500–68,000/T range for 304 cold-rolled coil reflects the upstream price increases

'This report is published by the Market Research Department of Double Steel Corporation. Data sources: TradingEconomics, E.SUN Bank, Mysteel, SteelWorld and Steel industry news sources. This report is provided for reference only and does not constitute a final investment or direct purchasing decision.'