Double Steel Weekly Report | 2026 Week 25 (June 16 – June 21)

Release Date: June 21, 2026

Exchange Rate Base: USD/TWD 31.69 (Esun Bank Spot Selling Rate)

Executive Summary

Global steel raw materials weakened across the board. Scrap steel led the decline, dropping nearly 4%, while iron ore priced in RMB fell over 2%. The World Bank and Fitch successively downgraded global economic growth forecasts, combining off-season weakness with pessimistic expectations to suppress purchasing momentum. In the Chinese market, rebar and steel billets remained weak, with the rebar-to-billet spread narrowing to just 24 CNY/T, indicating razor-thin downstream profit margins and a lack of restocking motivation among steel mills. The domestic market in Taiwan faced a standstill due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with scrap purchasing suspended and rebar trading halted, weakening short-term support. Japan initiated a preliminary anti-dumping determination on stainless steel from Taiwan and China, with temporary duties expected as early as July, adding uncertainty to special steel trade. Procurement Advice for the Week: Wait-and-See.

1. Bulk Raw Materials & Exchange Rates

The cost side showed diverging trends, creating a scissor-like gap of falling iron ore and rising coal:

Iron Ore: 101.14 USD/T (Weekly down 0.45%, Monthly down 8.33%)
Coking Coal: 243.00 USD/T (Weekly down 0.82%, Monthly up 2.10%)
Scrap Steel (International): 385 USD/T (Weekly down 3.87%, Monthly down 4.98%, largest decline of the week)

This opposing movement exerts structural pressure on steel mill margins. Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) stood at 1,195.11 USD/T (Weekly down 0.57%, Monthly up 4.65%), a monthly increase driven by aggressive price hikes from Japanese mills (July HRC raised by 12 USD/T) rather than demand recovery. Rebar fell to 3,084 CNY/T (Weekly down 1.53%, Monthly down 3.08%). Tangshan Billet Q235 reported at 3,000 CNY/T, down 0.66% daily.

Regarding exchange rates and freight, USD/CNY reached 6.7838 (Weekly up 0.40%). The depreciation of the RMB enhances China's export competitiveness but simultaneously raises import costs for Taiwan. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 2,722 points (Daily up 2.37%), supported primarily by a recovery in shipping through the Suez and Hormuz straits.

2. Early Market Signals

The rebar-to-billet spread dropped to 24 CNY/T, approaching historical lows. Re-rolling margins at steel mills are severely squeezed, increasing the risk of production cuts within 2 to 4 weeks. Tangshan billet averages hovered around the 3,000 CNY/T mark, providing limited upstream support. The export premium (HRC FOB minus domestic price) reached 740.5 USD/T, maintaining export incentives, though the weekly 0.40% rise in USD/CNY will partially offset this drive.

3. Deep-Dive Commodity Analysis

Steel Billet (Tangshan Q235)

Tangshan Q235 billet is currently quoted at 3,020 CNY/T (approximately 446 USD/T), nearing recent lows. Asian CFR offers landed between 495 and 500 USD/T, but actual transactions ground to a halt. Some traders have begun short selling at CFR 490 to 493 USD/T, indicating pressure to liquidate existing inventories. The depreciation of the Taiwan Dollar remains a critical variable, passively raising import costs. Market target prices stalled at CFR 485 USD/T, leaving a 10 to 15 USD gap between buyers and sellers that remains difficult to bridge in the short term.

Procurement Strategy: Avoid chasing higher prices now. Observe transaction signals for 1 to 2 weeks after the holiday. If actual CFR transactions dip below 490 USD/T and the TWD stabilizes, consider it a mid-to-short-term buying window for small-batch trial orders and staggered positioning.

Special Steel & Round Bars

The supply side displayed structural divergence. International scrap quotes fell nearly 5% monthly, easing raw material cost pressures for EAF mills, while HRC rose 4.65% monthly, driving divergent price trends across different steel grades.

The preliminary Japanese anti-dumping determination marks the most significant event this week. The Ministry of Finance of Japan determined that nickel-bearing cold-rolled stainless steel sheets originating from China and Taiwan were sold at unfairly low prices (20% to 40% below domestic prices), with temporary duties expected as early as July. While this directly impacts cold-rolled stainless steel sheets, market sentiment has spread to the special steel round bar purchasing sector, introducing variables into future shipping strategies by Japanese suppliers to Taiwan.

Indonesian officials explicitly denied loosening nickel ore quotas, cutting the total 2026 quota by over 30%, which maintains cost support for nickel-based materials. Nickel prices fell 7.8% this month due to a stronger US Dollar, but downside room remains limited.

Procurement Strategy: Focus primarily on on-demand purchasing for the short term. For Japanese special steel round bars, confirm whether the July anti-dumping duties extend to round bar items before negotiating. For nickel-based materials, suspend chasing higher prices until Indonesian supply conditions clarify.

Quality Carbon Structure Steel (45# Round Bar)

The quality special steel market consolidated weakly this week. Prices for 45# round bar dropped slightly in the Changsha area, while major trading centers like Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong, and Tianjin remained stable amidst generally weak transaction volumes. The soft market in China favors Taiwanese importers seeking competitive procurement costs; however, downstream sectors like automotive components and machinery manufacturing show no clear signs of recovery, leaving quality special steel oversupplied in the short term.

Procurement Strategy: Take advantage of the current pricing window to discreetly evaluate import volumes, ensuring a buffer is reserved for exchange rate risks.

4. Key Regional Market Intelligence

Japan's Preliminary Anti-Dumping Determination on Sino-Taiwanese Stainless Steel (Effective July 2026)

The Ministry of Finance of Japan preliminary determined dumping behavior for nickel-bearing cold-rolled stainless steel sheets from China and Taiwan, with temporary duties taking effect as early as July. Taiwanese manufacturers exporting to Japan face new barriers, necessitating a re-evaluation of pricing and sales strategies for the Japanese market.
Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota Cuts Confirmed, Tight Q3 Supply Expected

Indonesian officials explicitly denied early quota expansions, reducing total 2026 quotas by over 30%. Additional corporate applications must wait until the July filing period, which involves long approval cycles. Cost support for stainless steel and nickel-alloy special steel persists; importers must maintain buffers for cost fluctuations.
China's Domestic Demand Shrinks, Softening Steel Demand Outlook

May retail sales contracted 0.6% year-on-year, marking the first decline in three years. Fixed-asset investment for the first five months fell 4.1% year-on-year, a 6-year low, while new residential housing starts plummeted 22.6%. These metrics align closely with this week's 2.2% drop in RMB-priced iron ore and 1.5% fall in rebar, pointing to a continuously weakening steel demand outlook.
Chinese Steel Mill Production Rebounds, High Inventories Intensify Supply Pressure

In early June, crude steel daily output rose 3.8% month-on-month, pushing finished steel inventories to 26.25 million tons by June 10 (up 4.1% month-on-month). As the summer off-season approaches, supply-demand mismatches will worsen. Importers should assess procurement pacing and hoarding risks for the second half of the year.

5. Procurement Decision Summary

Steel Billet / Round Bars: Wait-and-see; await post-holiday transaction signals, monitoring the 3,050 CNY/T support level for Tangshan billet.
Scrap Steel: Wait-and-see; a floor has not been confirmed despite the 3.87% weekly drop.
Special Steel (Japanese Origin): Wait-and-see; confirm whether the July anti-dumping duties apply to round bars first.
Special Steel (Chinese Origin): Purchase on demand; avoid heavy stocking.
Nickel-based Materials: Suspend chasing higher prices; a floor has not been confirmed following the 7.8% monthly decline.

6. Critical Watchlist for Next Week

Whether Tangshan billet holds the 3,050 CNY/T mark.
Next month's price announcements from Feng Hsin Steel and China Steel Corporation (CSC).
The timeline for Japan's final anti-dumping determination (estimated July 2026).
Resumption of operations and scrap purchasing at domestic steel mills post-holiday.
Updates on China's social steel inventory data for late June.

Published by the Market Research Department of Double Steel Co., Ltd. Data Sources: TradingEconomics, Mysteel, Esun Bank, SteelWorld, Steel Net, International Steel News. For reference only; does not constitute investment advice.