Double Steel Weekly Report | 2026 Week 27 (June 30-July 6)

International HRC and Iron Ore Under Joint Pressure; Softening Asian Import Offers Maintain Conservative Wait-and-See Outlook

Double Steel Weekly Report | 2026 Week 28 (July 6)

Release Date: July 6, 2026

Exchange Rate Base: USD/TWD 32.09 (Esun Bank Spot Selling Rate)

Market Overview: Softening Raw Materials and Southeast Asian Price Cuts Diverge Carbon and Special Steel Trends

International iron ore and hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices retreated in tandem this week, while the Chinese steel billet market extended its volatile, weak consolidation. Cost-side support remained limited but has not entirely collapsed. Concurrently, the Asian export market faced severe shocks from consecutive downward price revisions by Formosa Ha Tinh and Hoa Phat in Vietnam. This has significantly heightened competitive pressures for imported steel materials arriving in Taiwan, placing sustained weight on HRC and commercial carbon steel prices. In contrast, special steel displayed relative resilience; the Mysteel Special Steel Index held visibly above commercial grades, and a slight uptick in Toufen free-cutting medium carbon steel suggests localized structural support remains within the special steel demand segment.

1. Bulk Raw Materials & Leading Macro Indicators

Major raw material costs weakened across the board this week. Key market data and leading indicators are outlined below:

Iron Ore: Latest quote at 98.25 USD/T, down 2.1% weekly, with a monthly decline of 5.3%.
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC): Latest quote at 1169.08 USD/T, down 2.1% weekly, down 2.2% monthly.
Coking Coal: Latest quote at 241.00 USD/T, down 0.9% weekly, down 2.2% monthly.
Tangshan Billet (Q235): Daily spot average hovered at 2,940.00 CNY/T, remaining flat weekly.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI): Latest reported at 2717.00 points, keeping ocean freight steady.

Regarding macro indicators, the rebar-to-billet spread narrowed further to 55.2 CNY/T, severely compressing profit margins and diminishing the cost-push momentum from steel mills. Tangshan billet prices stagnated at lower bounds, pointing to restricted upstream support. Although the export premium (FOB minus domestic price) remained elevated at 719.3 USD/T, a 0.3% weekly appreciation of the Renminbi against the US Dollar (lowering USD/CNY) partially erased the export margin and pricing advantages of Chinese mills. Furthermore, Chinese cold-rolled coil inventories reached a high of 1.5 million tons. This heavy destocking pressure foreshadows intensifying downstream price wars, leaving steel prices exposed to downward adjustments over the coming 2 to 4 weeks.

2. Deep-Dive Commodity Analysis

Steel Billet & Square Bars

Tangshan Q235 billet fluctuated with a weaker undertone before staging a minor recovery over the weekend. Against the backdrop of an eight-week consecutive weekly losing streak for iron ore and lower steel futures, the drop in billet prices represents a natural cost transmission. While nominal price increases occurred late in the week, they represented a post-drop technical rebound rather than a structural trend reversal.

On the demand side, Taiwanese steel mills maintained a passive "no deal, no matter" stance. The core reason remains that domestic rebar prices have yet to establish a firm floor; purchasing high-cost imported billets under current conditions would only widen downstream losses. Compounding this, the weak USD/TWD spot selling rate at 32.09 has passively raised actual import costs in local currency. The price mismatch between buyers and sellers persists, leaving Taiwanese market interest in imported billets firmly stalled in a passive wait-and-see mode rather than active restocking.

Special Steel & Round Bars

The raw material front for special steel exhibited structural divergence. Although international scrap steel quotes ticked up slightly this week, they remain down by more than 4% monthly, indicating thin overall raw material support. Two consecutive weeks of declines in HRC prices reflect lackluster downstream momentum, exerting downward pressure on the cost baseline for special steel round bars.

In the international trade landscape, Japan implemented temporary anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled stainless steel sheets from Taiwan and China, effective July 9. Although Taiwanese producers secured lower tariff rates (Yieh United at 3.86%, Walsin Lihwa at 20.71%), which limits the immediate blow, the move signals heightening trade protectionism from Japanese suppliers, restricting their willingness to offer proactive price concessions on quality structure round bars. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers are caught in a tug-of-war between defending margins and securing market share amidst low local bid matching and price cuts on Vietnamese wire rods. Consequently, commercial-grade product quotes may see downward revisions, whereas high-value specifications retain strong baseline support due to structural industrial upgrades.

Domestically, Hoa Phat's sharp downward revision for August HRC prices has suppressed price expectations for local round bar mill sheets, slightly opening up a cost-performance window for imported options. Processing and automotive components buyers remain highly cautious. Given forecasts pointing to July as the bottom for Chinese industrial wire rod prices in the second half of the year, current procurement should center on establishing minimal safety stock during price dips rather than chasing higher offers.

Quality Carbon Structure Steel (45# Round Bar)

The quality special steel market consolidated weakly this week, with the spot price of 45# round bar flatlining at 3,590 CNY/T, though regional divergence widened. Shenyang and Shandong posted minor declines of 10–30 CNY/T, whereas quotes in Changsha, Guangdong, and Fujian held relatively steady. The ongoing weakness in ferrous futures remains the primary drag on spot sentiment, as low-bound fluctuations in rebar futures directly weigh on trader confidence.

Due to the seasonal summer slowdown and extensive rainfall, operating rates across machinery processing and automotive components manufacturing remained sluggish. Market trading consisted almost entirely of sporadic, rigid hand-to-mouth replenishment. Simultaneously, trading house inventories experienced mild accumulation. To accelerate liquidations, hidden price discounts underneath stable nominal quotes became commonplace. As coking coal and steel billet costs soften, steel mills lack the momentum to defend high list prices, suggesting further minor downside room for spot prices in the short term.

3. Key Regional Market Intelligence

Asia Market: Hoa Phat Slashes August HRC; Indian & Indonesian Cargoes Post Rapid Catch-Up Drops

Vietnam's Hoa Phat adjusted its August HRC list prices downward by 34 USD to 550 USD/T. Indian HRC export offers followed suit, falling to CFR 535–540 USD/T, while Indonesian HRC cargoes traded at CFR 542–543 USD/T. This price reset triggered a domino effect across the import sector. Driven by falling HRC quotes and shrinking export premiums, purchasing enthusiasm among Taiwanese importers cooled further, exerting price pressure on special steel round bar clients due to heightened competition.
Taiwan Market: Japan Levies Provisional Anti-Dumping Duties on Taiwanese and Chinese Cold-Rolled Stainless

Japan announced provisional anti-dumping duties ranging from 3.86% to 20.71% on Taiwanese 304 cold-rolled stainless steel sheets (with Chinese origin facing 33% to 45%), effective from July 9 to November 8. For stainless steel round bars destined for re-export to Japan, Taiwanese mills will benefit from a relative competitive edge due to lower tariff rates. However, rising global protectionism and relentless low-price competition from China will continue to weigh on long-term special steel export margins.
China Market: Formosa Ha Tinh Cuts Wire Rod by 20 USD; Iron Ore Posts 8-Week Consecutive Losses

Formosa Ha Tinh lowered its wire rod prices for August/September shipments by 20 USD to 560–570 USD/T, marking a two-month cumulative drop of 35 USD. Meanwhile, iron ore prices slipped to a 4.5-month low at 99.25 USD/T, securing an eight-week consecutive losing streak. Chinese steel mills have moved from "anticipated production cuts" into "actual production cuts," and intense wire rod export competition will continue to depress Asian import price baselines.
International Market: New EU Quotas Exhausted on Day One; Turkish HRC Facing Diversion Risks

The new EU steel quota allocation opened on July 1 and was exhausted on the first day, with HRC quota applications oversubscribed by 43%. Turkish mills now face a 50% tariff penalty threat on excess volumes, forcing FOB quotes down to 595–615 USD/T, with market analysts projecting an additional 20–30 USD drop. As global trade protectionism accelerates regional market isolation, importers face the long-term risk of international HRC supply shifting toward Asian markets, keeping downward pressure on Taiwanese import prices.

Published by the Market Research Department of Double Steel Co., Ltd. Data Sources: TradingEconomics, Mysteel, Esun Bank, SteelWorld, International Steel News. For reference only; does not constitute investment advice.