Publication Date: July 27, 2026
Publication Date: July 27, 2026
Exchange Rate Benchmark: USD/TWD spot selling rate 32.45
This week, the steel market remained in a consolidation phase characterized by weak demand, divergent finished-steel prices, and shifting raw-material risks. Iron ore, coking coal, and rebar all declined week on week, while the HRC benchmark edged higher and international scrap rebounded sharply, indicating a widening divergence between blast-furnace and electric-arc-furnace costs.
Social inventories of China’s five major steel products returned to growth after a period of destocking. Rebar and wire rod posted the most notable inventory increases, showing that end-user demand remains insufficient to support broad-based price increases. In Taiwan, high inventories and weak buying interest continued to weigh on spot prices for HRC, wire rod, and H-beams. Meanwhile, rising international scrap, freight, and nickel prices limited the downside in raw-material costs for certain products. The price of 45# special-steel round bar stood at CNY 3,530/T and was unchanged on the day, while the broader market remained weak with average transaction activity.
Demand indicators weakened from the previous week, and rising steel inventories limited the upside for finished-product prices. However, the rebound in scrap and nickel means that a uniform bearish strategy is not appropriate across all product categories.
Key Data This Week:
• Iron ore: USD 98.42/T, down 0.47% week on week
• Coking coal: USD 221.00/T, down 2.86% week on week
• HRC benchmark: USD 1,199.95/T, up 1.01% week on week
• Scrap (international benchmark): USD 402.50/T, up 5.92% week on week
• Rebar/steel benchmark: CNY 3,074.00/T, down 0.90% week on week
• Tangshan Q235 billet: CNY 2,960/T (CNY 2.96/KG), unchanged on the day
• 45# special-steel round bar: CNY 3,530/T, unchanged on the day
• USD/TWD spot selling rate: 32.45; spot buying rate: 32.35
• USD/CNY: 6.7663, down 0.40% week on week
• Social inventories of China’s five major steel products: 11.7733 million tonnes, up 0.85% week on week
Chapter 1: Detailed Data Review
Cost Indicators and Exchange Rate Monitoring
Expected impact of cost fluctuations on Taiwan’s imported steel prices:
Raw materials for the blast-furnace route weakened this week. Iron ore fell 0.47% week on week, coking coal declined 2.86%, and rebar dropped 0.90%. In contrast, the HRC benchmark rose 1.01%, while the international scrap benchmark jumped 5.92%. Cost pressure on blast-furnace production eased, but raw-material risks increased for electric-arc-furnace and nickel-bearing products. Price trends are therefore likely to become more differentiated across steel categories.
Australian 62% Fe fines were quoted at USD 98.90/T on July 24, down 2.47% week on week, after touching a five-month low of USD 97.90/T on July 22. Another iron ore benchmark stood at USD 98.42/T, down 0.47% week on week. The two indicators moved in the same direction but should not be combined directly because their benchmarks and measurement periods differ.
Taiwanese importers continue to face exchange-rate pressure, with the USD/TWD spot selling rate at 32.45. Based on Southeast Asian general-purpose billet at CFR USD 470–485/T and an estimated 3% in port and handling charges, the pre-tax cost is approximately NTD 15.71–16.21/KG. This excludes tariffs, financing costs, and inland transportation. A low US-dollar quotation alone is therefore insufficient; product specifications, origin risk, payment terms, and delivery schedules must also be considered.
Leading Macro Indicators and Interpretation:
The rebar-to-billet spread was approximately CNY 54.8/T, indicating that rolling margins remained narrow. Inventory signals weakened from the previous week. Social inventories of China’s five major steel products rose to 11.7733 million tonnes, up 0.85% week on week. Rebar inventories increased 1.25%, wire rod inventories rose 4.07%, and only cold-rolled coil inventories declined, falling 0.77%. Although mills showed some willingness to cut production and defend prices, inventory accumulation reflected insufficient end-user demand. If rebar and wire rod inventories continue to rise over the next two to four weeks, support for Tangshan billet at CNY 2,960/T may weaken further.
Chapter 2: In-Depth Analysis of Key Products
2.1 Billet
Tangshan Q235 billet was quoted at CNY 2,960/T this week, down CNY 30/T from CNY 2,990/T in Week 30. Both billet supply and demand in China weakened. Although inventories continued to decline and mills attempted to defend prices, high finished-steel inventories and weak end-user demand kept the market within a narrow and slightly bearish range.
General-purpose imported billet in Southeast Asia was quoted at CFR USD 470–485/T, down USD 2–3/T week on week. The lowest offers for Chinese 3SP/5SP billet were CFR USD 480–485/T, while Philippine buyers considered CFR USD 470–475/T reasonable. Iranian billet was quoted at CFR USD 460–465/T, but sanctions, shipping-route risks, and September delivery schedules make it inappropriate to compare directly with conventional origins. Indian billet export offers stood at FOB USD 450–460/T. As these prices exclude freight to Taiwan, the actual landed cost must be calculated separately.
In Taiwan, China Steel Corporation is considering domestic billet sales. Taiwan imported approximately 2.30 million tonnes of billet last year and about 910,000 tonnes in the first six months of this year. If domestically produced billet becomes available, shorter lead times and better service may alter the economics of import substitution. Buyers should wait until both domestic and overseas firm offers become clearer. Conventional-origin billet should be reassessed if prices fall below CFR USD 470/T. Even when sanctioned-origin material is cheaper, payment, insurance, shipping, and compliance risks must be evaluated separately.
2.2 Special Steel and Round Bar
The price of 45# special-steel round bar stood at CNY 3,530/T this week and was unchanged on the day, representing a decline of CNY 50/T from CNY 3,580/T in Week 29. Regional markets remained weak. Prices fell in Guangdong, transactions were quiet in Fujian, and purchases in Changsha were mainly driven by immediate end-user requirements. The nationwide market was also characterized by weak prices and average transaction activity.
Carbon-steel round bar still has room for negotiation, but raw-material trends have diverged. The international scrap benchmark reached USD 402.50/T, up 5.92% week on week, while actual transactions for US 80:20 containerized scrap delivered to Taiwan were approximately CFR USD 320–321/T. Because the two figures use different benchmarks, they are not directly interchangeable. Purchasing decisions should be based on firm landed quotations with matching specifications, origins, and delivery terms.
For nickel-bearing products, LME nickel closed at USD 17,379/T on July 24, up USD 418/T or 2.46% week on week. LME nickel inventories declined for six consecutive days to 267,342 tonnes, a cumulative decrease of 7,505 tonnes. Rising nickel prices and falling inventories increased the cost risk for nickel-bearing round bar relative to carbon-steel round bar. The CNY 3,530/T price for 45#/S45C can be used as this week’s comparison benchmark, with purchases kept order-driven and replenishment cycles short. For nickel-bearing and alloy-steel round bar, quotation validity should be shortened, while large one-time purchases at elevated prices should be avoided.
2.3 Other Related Steel Products
Asian HRC was quoted at CFR USD 520–525/T, with tradable levels at approximately CFR USD 510–515/T. Chinese SS400/Q235 offers ranged from FOB USD 488–510/T, with tradable levels at approximately FOB USD 485–505/T. In Taiwan, spot HRC prices were approximately NTD 18,500/T for imported material and NTD 19,500/T for domestic material, with actual transactions slightly lower. Distributors continued to face pressure from high inventories.
For wire rod, China Steel Corporation’s blast-furnace K-material project price was NTD 20,500/T, above the prevailing market level. Spot prices for blast-furnace K material were approximately NTD 19,500–20,000/T. Indonesian K material was maintained at FOB USD 485/T for Taiwan, equivalent to approximately CFR USD 505/T. Chinese wire rod export offers stood at FOB USD 500–510/T. Mainstream transactions for 6.5mm SAE1008 in Southeast Asia were around CFR USD 510/T, while buyers bid approximately CFR USD 500–505/T.
In stainless steel, Asian 304 cold-rolled coil was quoted at CFR USD 2,230/T, down USD 190/T from the end of June. Taiwan’s spot price for 304 cold-rolled coil was approximately NTD 68,000/T, down NTD 3,000/T over the past month. Raw materials strengthened while demand remained weak. The market generally expected August 304 list prices to remain unchanged, while 316 prices had relatively stronger support due to higher ferromolybdenum prices.
For H-beams, Japanese offers to Taiwan declined from CFR USD 715–718/T to CFR USD 690/T. Spot base prices for imported H-beams were approximately NTD 24,000–24,200/T, while volume buyers could obtain NTD 23,800–23,900/T. Domestic spot prices were approximately NTD 24,800–25,000/T. Weak construction demand increased selling pressure. Non-essential purchases can be postponed, while buyers with confirmed requirements should negotiate near the lower end of the transaction range.
Chapter 3: Regional Market Intelligence
China | Billet Supply and Demand Weaken; Prices Expected to Remain Low and Range-Bound
Both billet supply and demand in China declined. Inventories continued to fall and mills attempted to defend prices, but end-user demand, finished-steel inventories, and futures momentum all remained weak. Support for Tangshan billet at CNY 2,960/T was still unstable, allowing import buyers to wait for more competitive offers from conventional origins.
Southeast Asia | Weak Billet Demand; Conventional-Origin Prices Fall USD 2–3/T
General-purpose imported billet in Southeast Asia was quoted at CFR USD 470–485/T. The lowest offers for Chinese 3SP/5SP billet were CFR USD 480–485/T, while Philippine buyers considered CFR USD 470–475/T reasonable. Buyers retained negotiating leverage, and sanctioned-origin material should not be compared directly with conventional-origin supply.
Taiwan | China Steel Corporation Considers Domestic Billet Sales
Taiwan imported approximately 2.30 million tonnes of billet last year and about 910,000 tonnes in the first six months of this year. China Steel Corporation is considering the launch of domestic billet sales. If domestic supply becomes available, shorter lead times and better service could reduce inventory and shipping risks. The market should compare the total landed cost of domestic and imported material.
China | Inventories of Five Major Steel Products Return to Growth
As of July 24, social inventories of China’s five major steel products rose to 11.7733 million tonnes, up 0.85% week on week. Rebar inventories increased 1.25%, wire rod inventories rose 4.07%, and only cold-rolled coil inventories declined, falling 0.77%. Supply-demand pressure increased for construction steel and wire rod, making large inventory accumulation inadvisable for rebar, wire rod, and carbon-steel round bar.
Asia and Taiwan | HRC Prices Stable; High Taiwanese Inventories Weigh on the Market
Asian HRC was quoted at CFR USD 520–525/T, with tradable levels at approximately CFR USD 510–515/T. Taiwan’s spot prices for imported and domestic HRC were approximately NTD 18,500/T and NTD 19,500/T, respectively. With distributor inventories remaining high, small-volume, staggered purchasing and multi-origin price comparisons remain appropriate.
Taiwan | China Steel Corporation’s K-Material Project Price Above Market; Wire Rod Remains Weak and Stable
China Steel Corporation’s blast-furnace K-material project price was NTD 20,500/T, while the prevailing market price for blast-furnace K material was approximately NTD 19,500–20,000/T. Indonesian K material delivered to Taiwan was approximately CFR USD 505/T. The project price has not yet stimulated transactions, and carbon-steel wire rod purchases remain demand-driven.
Stainless Steel | Nickel Extends Gains While Finished-Product Demand Remains Weak
LME nickel closed at USD 17,379/T, up 2.46% week on week, while inventories declined for six consecutive days to 267,342 tonnes. Taiwan’s spot price for 304 cold-rolled coil was approximately NTD 68,000/T, down NTD 3,000/T over the past month. Cost risk increased for nickel-bearing products, but finished-product demand remained weak. Quotation validity and purchasing cycles should therefore be shortened.
Taiwan | H-Beam Spot Prices Decline Ahead of Mill Prices
Japanese H-beam offers to Taiwan fell to CFR USD 690/T. Spot prices for imported H-beams declined to approximately NTD 24,000–24,200/T, while volume buyers could obtain NTD 23,800–23,900/T. Weak construction demand increased selling pressure, allowing non-essential purchases to be postponed.
Global | June Crude Steel Output Rises, but First-Half Production Remains Lower Year on Year
Crude steel production in the 70 reporting countries reached 155.7 million tonnes in June, up 1.7% year on year. First-half output totaled 931.5 million tonnes, down 0.7% year on year. India’s first-half production rose 7.1% to 87.0 million tonnes, while Vietnam’s June production increased 27.5% year on year to 2.60 million tonnes. Supply competition in Asian export markets is expected to continue.
Global Scrap | Supply and Freight Costs Push Turkish Prices Higher
Turkish deep-sea scrap transactions were approximately CFR USD 375/T, with the market expecting a possible test of CFR USD 380/T. Freight from the US East Coast to Turkey was approximately USD 36.75/T, while freight from Rotterdam to Turkey was approximately USD 33.50/T. Higher international scrap prices may gradually feed into electric-arc-furnace costs, making quotation and freight validity periods increasingly important.
Key Monitoring Indicators:
• Southeast Asian conventional-origin billet: whether CFR USD 470–485/T falls below USD 470/T
• Social inventories of China’s five major steel products: whether inventories rise for a second consecutive week after the latest 0.85% increase
• Tangshan billet: whether CNY 2,960/T falls below CNY 2,900/T or recovers to CNY 3,050/T
• International scrap versus actual Taiwanese landed prices: whether the gap between the international benchmark and US 80:20 scrap delivered to Taiwan at CFR USD 320–321/T narrows
• LME nickel: whether the price can hold above USD 17,500/T after reaching USD 17,379/T and whether inventories continue to decline
This report is published by the Market Research Department of Double Steel Corporation. Data sources: TradingEconomics, E.SUN Bank, Mysteel, SteelWorld. This report is provided for reference only and does not constitute a final investment or direct purchasing decision.