Double Steel Weekly Report | 2026 Week 26 (June 22 – June 29)

Global Steel Market Under Pressure, Special Steel Raw Material Costs Stumble; Market Extended Conservative Wait-and-See Outlook

Double Steel Weekly Report | 2026 Week 26 (June 22 – June 29)

Release Date: June 29, 2026

Exchange Rate Base: USD/TWD 31.96 (Esun Bank Spot Selling Rate)

Market Overview: Supply-Demand Mismatch Worsens Under Regional Pressure

The global steel market extended its weak consolidation this week, with supply pressures particularly heavy in China. During this traditional off-season, major Chinese steel mills maintained high operating rates without implementing production cuts, driving a continuous accumulation of finished product inventories. Statistics show that as of June 20, social steel inventories reached 27.24 million tons, with rebar inventories jumping 25.2% year-on-year, further exacerbating the oversupply situation. Concurrently, an unexpected and sharp price cut in Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC) triggered a chain reaction of panic across Southeast Asia, intensifying the regional supply-demand mismatch.

1. Bulk Raw Materials & Exchange Rates: Iron Ore Drops Over 8% Monthly

Cost support from major raw materials softened, though internal market signals varied across different commodities:

Iron Ore: Latest quote at 100.33 USD/T, down 0.5% weekly, down 8.2% monthly.
Coking Coal: Latest quote at 243.25 USD/T, up 0.1% weekly, up 1.1% monthly, with the ninth round of coke price hikes gaining momentum.
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC): Latest quote at 1,194 USD/T, down 0.1% weekly, up 1.4% monthly.
China Rebar: Latest quote at 3,064 CNY/T, down 0.4% weekly, down 3.0% monthly.
International Scrap Steel: Latest quote at 381.5 USD/T, down 0.9% weekly, down 4.4% monthly.
Tangshan Billet (Q235): Latest quote at 2,970 CNY/T.

The spread between rebar and steel billet in China narrowed to approximately 35 CNY/T, severely squeezing steel mill margins and pushing several producers to the brink of losses. In the currency and freight sectors, the Taiwan Dollar remained weak, with the USD/TWD spot selling rate reaching 31.96. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reported at 2,524 points, driven by the resumption of smooth transit through the Suez and Hormuz straits, which stabilized freight rates alongside adjusted shipping surcharges.

2. Special Steel Raw Materials: Nickel and Chromium Slump in Tandem

The special steel sector registered prominent cost-loosening signals this week, serving as a critical indicator for proactive procurement strategies:

LME Nickel Hits Year-to-Date Low: LME nickel futures closed lower for the fourth consecutive week, landing at 16,699 USD/T. The June average stood at 17,742 USD/T, representing a sharp monthly drop of 12.4%, primarily dragged down by rumors surrounding Indonesian nickel ore quotas hitting market sentiment.
High-Carbon Ferrochrome Pivots Downward: China's Tsingshan Group and TISCO simultaneously lowered their July procurement prices by 150 CNY per 50 base tons, retreating to new lows since the second half of last year. This reversal suggests that the consecutive price hikes for stainless steel in recent months may grind to a halt in July.
Mysteel Special Steel Index: Closed at 3,968.13 points, down 0.1% daily, continuing its downward trend.

3. Domestic Taiwan & China Special Steel Market Dynamics

CSC Slashes Leeway (LW) Prices Significantly

China Steel Corporation (CSC) expanded price cuts for its July cold-rolled and hot-rolled Leeway (secondary/surplus products) items by 900 TWD each, with a retroactive credit of 600 TWD. Post-adjustment, LW hot-rolled prices range between 17,850 TWD (hard grade) and 18,850 TWD (soft grade), yielding an average price of 18,350 TWD. This new price is 1,650 TWD lower than prime-grade promotional pricing (20,000 TWD) and nearly 2,000 TWD lower than imported spot hot-rolled cargo. By widening the LW price cut to twice that of prime products, CSC aims to bridge the "cheap imports vs. expensive domestic" market pricing gap.

China Quality Special Steel Round Bar Softens Across the Board

Quality special steel round bar prices declined across major Chinese trading hubs this week. Downstream purchasing in mechanical processing and automotive components remained limited to sporadic rigid demand, with negligible interest in bulk restocking:

Shandong Region: 45# carbon structure round bar quoted at 3,330–3,610 CNY/T; 40Cr alloy structure steel quoted at 3,630–3,810 CNY/T, dropping 10–20 CNY weekly.
Tianjin Region: 45# quoted at 3,430–3,690 CNY/T; 40Cr (Lingsteel) reported at 3,890 CNY/T, moving slightly lower.
Guangdong & Changsha Regions: Guangdong 45# reported at 3,620–3,750 CNY/T, seeing covert price concessions under steady nominal quotes; Changsha 45# held temporarily steady at 3,750–3,770 CNY/T.
China National 45# Average: Dropped to 3,722 CNY/T (down 4 CNY).

Mills like Linyi Steel Investment Special Steel and Hangsteel lowered prices by 10–20 CNY/T. The inventory structure showed divergence: supplies for large specifications above 100mm remained tight, while smaller sizes were abundant, prompting traders to offer hidden discounts to accelerate liquidations. In the industrial wire rod market, drawing materials averaged lower, and cold-heading steel 35K fell to 3,645 CNY/T, with the broad market bracing for a weak, volatile outlook next week.

Stainless Steel & Domestic Rebar Billet Stagnation

Taiwanese 304/2B export offers remained under pressure, with analysts predicting July list prices will snap a seven-month consecutive winning streak. Meanwhile, continuous heavy rainfall and a complete standstill in domestic earthworks heavily hit Taiwan's local rebar and billet trading, rendering the market virtually frozen with no transactional volume and no active quotes.

Imported Steel Billet Cost Estimation (Estimated CFR)

Reflecting overseas price fluctuations, the estimated CFR costs for imported steel billets are calculated as follows:

China 3SP 150: FOB quote 439 USD/T, Ocean Freight 22 USD, Estimated CFR Cost at 461 USD/T.
India Steel Billet: FOB quote 436 USD/T, Ocean Freight 22 USD, Estimated CFR Cost at 458 USD/T.
Russia Steel Billet: FOB quote 441 USD/T, Ocean Freight 22 USD, Estimated CFR Cost at 463 USD/T.

As Iranian steel billets recently re-entered the Southeast Asian market, they pose direct competitive pressure on Chinese export billets, necessitating close monitoring of subsequent offer trends.

4. Key International News Summaries

Indian HRC Low-Price Dumping: India suddenly slashed its export offers for hot-rolled coil, heavily undercutting Southeast Asian pricing benchmarks and placing a visible damper on buying interest in Indonesia, Vietnam, and surrounding regions.
Dubai Enacts Scrap Export Ban: Dubai authorities announced a ban on scrap steel exports for a six-month duration, a move set to disrupt scrap supply dynamics across the Middle East.
Global Demand Squeeze & Trade Reshuffling: During the first two months of 2026, EU steel exports to third countries contracted 33% year-on-year, with exports to the US plummeting 46%, illustrating a global demand slowdown paired with rising trade protectionism. In tandem, the World Bank lowered its 2026 global economic growth forecast. For mid-to-long-term market structural shifts, the impending India-EU FTA scheduled for signing in December 2026 warrants close observation.

5. Critical Watchlist for Next Week

Whether Tangshan steel billet spot quotes hold steady above the 2,970 CNY/T support line.
Whether the ninth round of coke price increases achieves successful implementation.
The clearance rate of domestic rebar inventories alongside the easing of regional rainfall.
The upcoming pricing announcements from CSC and Feng Hsin Steel.
Progress on India's FTA negotiations and its impact on Southeast Asian quota allocations.

Published by the Market Research Department of Double Steel Co., Ltd. Data Sources: TradingEconomics, Mysteel, Esun Bank, SteelWorld, International Steel News. For reference only; does not constitute investment advice.